[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 221238
SWODY1
SPC AC 221236

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N
VLD 40 NNW PNS 35 NNE JAN 60 N GLH 30 NNW MEM 15 SW MKL 25 WSW MSL
35 SSW ANB 20 NW MCN 45 ESE MCN 25 N VLD.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
LCH 20 SW HEZ FSM 30 SSW UMN 30 WNW POF 40 NE BWG 10 NNE LOZ 15 N
AVL 45 WSW SOP 25 NE EWN 45 NNE HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E PBI 15 SW FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E PSX 55 SSW TYR
20 SSE DUA 55 WNW MLC 35 S PNC 35 WSW EMP 10 ESE MKC UIN 20 N DNV 40
NNW DAY 20 NNW PKB 15 NE EKN 30 S MRB 30 SE BWI 45 NE SBY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S EKA 30 NW MFR 15
SW BNO 60 WNW TWF 30 S P38 50 SSW LAS 25 ESE LGB.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN TN/NRN MS INTO
CENTRAL/SRN AL AND SRN GA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OZARKS/MID SOUTH INTO
THE TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS AND THE SOUTHEAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
COMPLEX SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO TODAY FROM THE MID SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S...AS LARGE AREA OF STRONG WSWLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVERSPREADS A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER.  UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE OZARK REGION AND INTO THE LOWER OH
RIVER VALLEY/MID SOUTH REGION BY LATE TODAY...WITH MID LEVEL DRY
SLOT SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY EITHER
COINCIDENT OR JUST AHEAD OF N-S ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH.  AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO SURGE NWD INTO CENTRAL AL/GA...WHILE COASTAL
FRONT LIFTS WNWWD ACROSS ERN GA/WRN SC.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW PRIMARY
WARM FRONT TO BECOME ESTABLISHED JUST SOUTH OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS
INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF SC AND NC THROUGH THE PERIOD.  

...SRN/CENTRAL MS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST
ANY DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE SEVERE ACROSS THE REGION.  APPEARS AIR MASS
WILL BECOME MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED BY
THE LATE MORNING EAST OF ONGOING LINE OF STORMS AND SOUTH OF
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. AS H85 CONVERGENCE AXIS SHIFTS FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION MAY BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY THE AFTERNOON.  DEGREE OF SEVERE THREAT STILL CENTERS
ON 1) HOW MUCH AIR MASS CAN DESTABILIZE PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AND 2) HOW MUCH HEATING CAN PRECEED THE STORMS.  SHOULD
TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF STORM CLUSTERS/LINES
ACROSS MS...AL OR GA...THEN SEVERITY OF ANY ENSUING WIND/TORNADO
THREAT WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY...MDT RISK
ACROSS PART OF THIS REGION REMAINS WARRANTED GIVEN PRESENCE OF VERY
STRONG SHEAR AND LIKELIHOOD OF SURFACE BASED STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF WARM FRONT.

SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP EWD ACROSS AL/GA AND INTO
THE ERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS.  THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MAY COOL SOME AFTER DARK...
VERY STRONG SHEAR AND PRESENCE OF COASTAL BOUNDARY WILL SUSTAIN A
THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE/TORNADOES AS POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE SHIFTS ENEWD
TOWARDS THE COAST.

...MS RIVER VALLEY/MID SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY...
APPEARS CLEARING AND STRONG MID LEVEL COOLING WILL BOOST SBCAPE BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION.  06Z ETA AND GFS
BOTH INDICATE AREA WILL CONVECT LATER TODAY AHEAD OF PRIMARY SURFACE
TROUGH/UPPER LOW.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES/LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH DAMAGING
WINDS INTO FAR NERN AR/SWRN TN/NRN MS BY 21Z...AS STORMS ORGANIZE
INTO SMALL LINES/SUPERCELLS.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE
TN VALLEY THROUGH THE EVENING. 

...NRN/CENTRAL FL...
THOUGH LAPSE RATES REMAIN MARGINAL ACROSS FL...SHEAR PROFILES WILL
STRENGTHEN AS 40-50 KT WLY H5 WINDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION.  IN
ADDITION...UPPER 60F-NEAR 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY ALLOW
MODEST SBCAPE TO DEVELOP BY THE MID AFTERNOON. THUS AS STORMS
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
STORM SCALE ORGANIZATION INTO ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND POSSIBLY
SUPERCELLS.  LATER TONIGHT...TAIL END OF DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE WILL
LIKELY SHIFT EWD INTO NRN FL WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

...CENTRAL CA...
STRONG MID LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF CA THIS
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER LOW NOW MOVING INTO NRN
CA/SWRN ORE.  THOUGH MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIMIT HEATING
TODAY...VERY COLD MID LEVEL AIR WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  STRONGER STORMS MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY
EXCEED SEVERE LEVELS.

..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 03/22/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.