[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 220549
SWODY1
SPC AC 220547

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW
MGR 40 NNW PNS 15 NNW LUL 25 NNE GWO 35 SSW DYR 50 NNW HSV 25 SE HSV
25 SE ANB 25 S MCN 50 SSE MCN 15 WSW MGR.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE
GLS 45 SE PRX 30 NNE MKO 15 SW UMN 30 WNW POF 25 E OWB 10 NNE LOZ 15
N AVL 45 WSW SOP 25 NE EWN 45 NNE HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E PBI 15 SW FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E PSX 55 SSW TYR
20 SSE DUA 55 WNW MLC 35 S PNC 35 WSW EMP 10 ESE MKC UIN 20 N DNV 40
NNW DAY 20 NNW PKB 15 NE EKN 30 S MRB 30 SE BWI 45 NE SBY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S EKA 30 NW MFR 15
SW BNO 60 WNW TWF 30 S P38 50 SSW LAS 25 ESE LGB.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A SMALL PART OF MIDDLE
TN...ERN MS...MUCH OF AL AND A SMALL PORTION OF SWRN GA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE
LOWER MS VLY...THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE SERN STATES INCLUDING
NRN/CNTRL FL...

...SYNOPSIS..
STACKED UPPER LOW OVER OK WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE ENEWD THROUGH MO TUE
AFTN WITH AN ASSOCIATED 80 KT H5 JET ARCING ACROSS LA INTO MS AND AL
BY EVENING.  AT THE SURFACE...LOW OVER ERN OK WILL SHIFT EWD INTO NW
AR BY 18Z...NERN AR BY 00Z AND INTO THE LOWER OH VLY TUE NIGHT.  A
DRYLINE/COLD FRONT S OF THE LOW WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VLY BY EARLY TUE...REACHING THE AL/MS STATE LINE BY 00Z.  A WARM
FRONT WILL REDEVELOP NWD WITH TIME THROUGH THE SRN STATES.

...DEEP S...
ONGOING STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS FROM AR SWD INTO LA WILL LIKELY MOVE
ENEWD AND BE PRESENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD FROM THE
MID-SOUTH INTO PARTS OF MS.  THIS ACTIVITY IS APT TO DEVELOP EWD
WITH TIME ACROSS NRN AL AND GA DURING THE PROGRESS OF THE MORNING
AND INTO TN/KY AND PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS IN THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG
LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EWD.  ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME LARGELY
ELEVATED THE FARTHER IT MOVES NE ATOP THE COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE
FROM KY TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS.  

QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW EXPANSIVE THE WARM SECTOR WILL BECOME AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT.  MODELS ARE INSISTENT ON THE WARM FRONT
MAKING IT AS FAR N AS MIDDLE TN...NERN AL...CNTRL GA...ERN SC BY
PEAK HEATING.  THIS MAY BE TOO FAR N CONSIDERING CLOUDS/RAIN
EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING.  

THE MID-60S SURFACE DEW POINT POOL ACROSS THE NRN GULF WILL PROBABLY
ADVECT INTO AT LEAST CNTRL MS/AL AND SRN GA DURING THE AFTERNOON. 
ANY CLEARING BEHIND MORNING ACTIVITY WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER TO
DESTABILIZE RAPIDLY...ESPECIALLY AS H5 TEMPS OF  MINUS 15-20C BEGIN
TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE MOIST AXIS.

TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT/DRYLINE BY MID-AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM PARTS OF MIDDLE TN
SWD INTO ERN MS.  SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION W.R.T. THE INITIATING
BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THAT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
INITIAL STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  BACKED LOW-LEVEL
FLOW ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
TORNADOES...MAINLY IN THE MDT RISK AREA.  

...NRN/CNTRL FL...
TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL FL TUE AFTN ALONG
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES/WARM FRONT.  40-50 KT H5 FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH
WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO.  LATER AT NIGHT...AS THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GULF COASTAL AREA...A BAND OF TSTMS
IS APT TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN FL.  INCREASING VERTICAL
SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST FOR A FEW STORMS TO BE
ORGANIZED WITH MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.

...CAROLINAS...
WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO AT LEAST THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
CAROLINAS TUE AFTN AND NIGHT.  INCREASING INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW ORGANIZED TSTMS/SUPERCELLS...
PARTICULARLY OVER ERN SC.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD
TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

...AR INTO THE MID-SOUTH...
COLD POOL ALOFT /H5 TEMP AOB MINUS 20C/ WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS AR
AND TOWARD THE MID-SOUTH TUE WHERE RESIDUAL DEW POINTS IN THE 50S
WILL EXIST.  THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-TOPPED TSTMS TO DEVELOP
DURING PEAK HEATING.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS...THOUGH ISOLD TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN
THE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VCNTY THE SURFACE LOW.

...CNTRL CA...
BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE IN THE POST-FRONTAL
REGIME ALONG CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL JET.  ANY HEATING WILL
ENCOURAGE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER TSTMS.  ISOLD
TORNADOES ALSO MAY OCCUR IN THE VLYS OF CNTRL CA WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW CAN REMAINED BACKED.

..RACY/TAYLOR.. 03/22/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.