[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 220055
SWODY1
SPC AC 220053

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N
VCT 30 SSE AUS 30 NNE AUS 45 NE ACT 30 ENE DAL 30 NNE DUA 20 SE MLC
PGO 50 SE PGO 30 S HOT 40 SSW GWO 20 SW JAN 30 N BTR 30 N LCH 50 N
VCT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE
VCT 35 NE COT 25 WSW SAT 35 SW TPL 10 E DAL 40 W MLC 50 ENE OKC 35
NNW END 20 NE P28 20 WNW ICT 40 WSW JLN 30 NNW LIT 15 NE GWO 45 E
MEI 50 NW CEW 15 S PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CRP 30 E COT
30 NNE HDO 30 S FTW 20 WNW ADM 30 N FSI 40 ESE GAG 40 NW GAG GCK 50
NNE DDC 25 NNW HUT 15 WSW VIH 25 E POF 25 SW RMG 30 SSW CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N ACV 30 SSW MHS
15 NNW SAC 20 NNW MRY.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN TX...EXTREME SERN
OK...NRN LA...SRN AR AND A SMALL PART OF THE MS DELTA REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
LOWER MS VLY...

...SERN OK/SWRN AR SWD TO THE UPPER TX COAST AND EWD TO DEEP S...
COMPLEX SCENARIO HAS UNFOLDED ACROSS THE REGION.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER ENHANCED REGION OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT
SPREADING EWD THROUGH NRN/CNTRL TX...WITH ITS INFLUENCE BEGINNING TO
 BE FELT ACROSS E TX.  TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING...
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS EVENING FROM SERN OK TO THE UPPER TX
COAST. 

BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE ARKLATEX SWD TOWARD HOUSTON WAS AFFECTED
BY MORNING CONVECTION...BUT LATEST MESOANALYSIS HINTS THAT THERE HAS
BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME RECOVERY...ESPECIALLY AS STEEPER
LAPSE RATES ALOFT SPREAD EWD.  

VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SUPERCELLS...THOUGH EVENING
ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BACK WITH TIME AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW. LARGE
HAIL...SOME POTENTIALLY VERY LARGE...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE 
THREATS.  ADDITIONALLY...LONG-LOOPED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST
THAT A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MDT RISK AREA.

TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD INTO THE LOWER MS
VLY...POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS MS...LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD.  THUS...THE THREAT OF TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL WILL SHIFT EWD WITH TIME.

...CNTRL/ERN OK...
SURFACE LOW HAS SETTLED SWD INTO CNTRL OK WITH AN ARCING DRY LINE
EXTENDING FROM WEST OF STILLWATER TO WEST OF DURANT. A COLD FRONT
SHOULD OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE WITH TIME THIS EVENING.  THE WARM FRONT
EXTENDED FROM S OF KTUL INTO SRN AR.  A NARROW WARM SECTOR
CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S EXISTS BETWEEN
THE DRYLINE AND WARM FRONT....CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 250-750
J/KG.  

ISOLD SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
ECNTRL OK...FEEDING OFF WARM SECTOR PARCELS BEFORE MOVING INTO THE
COLDER AIR.  ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS ECNTRL OK WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO OR LARGE HAIL GIVEN BACKED LOW LEVEL
FLOW ENVIRONMENT AND RELATIVELY LOW LCLS.

ADDITIONAL LOW-TOPPED TSTMS...WITH BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTER...
CONTINUE BENEATH THE MAIN COLD CORE ALOFT ACROSS NCNTRL OK.  THOUGH
CAPE IS MINIMAL...LOW-LEVEL HELICITY HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR
POSSIBLE ISOLD TORNADOES.  THIS THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH...BUT
A HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS EVENING GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF
COLD AIR ALOFT.

MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL TSTMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD
FRONT COLLISION IN THE DEEPLY MIXED DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS CNTRL/SWRN
OK...ALONG A ZONE OF ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT.  THESE STORMS ARE
APT TO ROOT INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE DRYLINE
ACROSS ERN OK IN A FEW HOURS.  THESE TSTMS SHOULD EVOLVE MORE INTO A
LINEAR NATURE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL.  THESE THREATS WILL SPREAD TOWARD AR
OVERNIGHT.

...ECNTRL FL...
NUMEROUS TSTMS CONTINUE ALONG THE ECNTRL FL COAST THIS EVENING.  THE
STORMS SHOULD LAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING.  UNTIL
THEN...EXPECT ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL.  HAVE NOT INCLUDED
A LOW PROBABILISTIC THREAT GIVEN SHORT TERM NATURE TO THE SEVERE
THREAT.

..RACY.. 03/22/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.