[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 211959
SWODY1
SPC AC 211957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CST MON MAR 21 2005

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N
VCT 45 E SAT 30 WSW AUS 30 NNE ACT 35 SW DUA 20 NNE ADM 30 E OKC 55
E OKC 30 N MLC 30 S HOT 40 SSW GWO 20 SW JAN 30 N BTR 30 N LCH 50 N
VCT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW
PSX 40 ENE COT 10 ENE HDO 50 W AUS 20 NW ACT 45 NNW DAL ADM 30 NW
OKC 30 NNW GAG 20 SSE DDC 45 E DDC 15 E ICT 60 ENE LIT 25 SW UOX 60
SSW SEM 10 SE PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CRP 35 SE COT
45 S JCT 10 SE SEP 40 ESE SPS FSI 45 N CDS 70 S LBL 30 W GCK 50 SW
HLC 35 ENE HLC 35 S SZL 25 E POF 25 SW RMG 30 SSW CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N ACV 30 SSW MHS
15 NNW SAC 20 NNW MRY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW SAD 55 NNE PHX
25 E GCN 80 SSW 4BL 30 W 4SL 20 SSE ABQ 25 NW ALM 35 SSW TCS 40 NW
SAD.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF SERN OK THROUGH
NERN AND E CNTRL TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX...OK INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY...

...SRN KS THROUGH CNTRL/ERN OK...CNTRL/ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...

UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SWRN KS/NW OK WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD THROUGH
TONIGHT. A SERIES OF VORT MAXES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LOW...WITH ONE SUCH FEATURE MOVING ESEWD THROUGH WRN OK AND NW
TX. VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET NOW OVER NM WILL MOVE INTO
CNTRL TX BY MID EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM A
SURFACE LOW IN NW OK SEWD THROUGH CNTRL OK AND THEN SWD THROUGH N
CNTRL AND CNTRL TX. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE NRN GULF INTO SW
LA AND NWWD INTO SE TX.


RICHEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S REMAIN CONFINED TO S TX. AN AXIS OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S EXTENDS NWD THROUGH
NERN TX AND CNTRL/ERN OK. DESPITE LIMITED RETURN OF HIGHER QUALITY
MOISTURE...THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE IN A NARROW AXIS
FROM N-CNTRL/NE TX INTO CNTRL/ERN OK ALONG AND E OF THE DRYLINE. IN
THIS AREA...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SURFACE HEATING EXISTS UNDERNEATH
COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...
CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
CNTRL/ERN OK WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX HAS
BECOME COINCIDENT WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. BACKED LOW
LEVEL WIND PROFILES E OF THE SURFACE LOW AND UNDERNEATH 50-60 KT MID
LEVEL JET IS RESULTING IN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE
OF SUPERCELLS FROM NERN TX NEWD THROUGH ERN OK. LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE THE INITIAL THREATS. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING
FARTHER NW ALONG THE COLD-FRONT/DRYLINE MERGER ACROSS NW OK INTO
SWRN KS CLOSER TO UPPER LOW CENTER. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS
WEAKER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IN THIS AREA.

TIMING FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER S TOWARD CNTRL TX IS
MORE UNCERTAIN. TREND HAS BEEN FOR EARLY WARM ADVECTION STORMS TO
WEAKEN... POSSIBLY DUE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF LEAD IMPULSE.
HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
THIS AREA THIS EVENING AS UPSTREAM JET APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND A FEW TORNADOES.

ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS DURING THE EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DESTABILIZE
NWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT AS RICHER MOISTURE ADVECTS
NWD. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AS
THE MCS CONTINUES EWD WITH POTENTIAL FOR LINES AND SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND...A FEW TORNADOES AND HAIL.

..DIAL.. 03/21/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.