[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 211634
SWODY1
SPC AC 211632

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1032 AM CST MON MAR 21 2005

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N
PSX 30 ENE SAT 10 SSE DAL 40 WSW MLC 30 NNE MLC 10 SSW HOT 25 NNW
JAN 15 NW MCB 25 WSW POE 50 N PSX.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW
PSX 30 NE COT 40 SE JCT 60 W TPL 30 E SEP 50 SSW ADM 35 NW ADM 30
WNW OKC 45 ENE GAG 40 S DDC DDC 15 E ICT 60 ENE LIT 25 SW UOX 60 SSW
SEM 10 SE PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CRP 35 SE COT
45 WNW HDO BWD 30 SE SPS 20 E LTS 45 N CDS 70 S LBL 30 W GCK 50 SW
HLC 25 ENE HLC 35 S SZL 50 NE MKL 10 SE GAD 30 SSW CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N ACV 30 SSW MHS
15 NNW SAC 20 NNW MRY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW SAD 55 NNE PHX
25 E GCN 80 SSW 4BL 30 W 4SL 20 SSE ABQ 25 NW ALM 35 SSW TCS 40 NW
SAD.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS E/NE TX AND SE OK THIS
AFTERNOON...SPREADING EWD INTO SW AR/NRN LA AND WRN MS BY LATE
TONIGHT....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
AREA...FROM SRN KS/NRN OK SWD INTO CENTRAL TX AND EWD TO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY....

...SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
A DEEP MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR LBL WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD INVOF
THE KS/OK BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT.  SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE TROUGHS ARE
ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW...ONE OF WHICH IS MOVING EWD OVER SRN
OK/CENTRAL AND N TX...ANOTHER WHICH IS ROTATING SEWD OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE AND ERN NM...AND A THIRD SPEED MAX OVER AZ WHICH WILL
REACH CENTRAL TX TONIGHT.  AT THE SURFACE...A 996 MB CYCLONE IN THE
ERN OK PANHANDLE /NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW/ WILL
DEVELOP EWD ACROSS NRN OK THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE A TRAILING DRYLINE
MOVES EWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND OK.  E OF THE DRYLINE...A WARM FRONT
IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AS IT LIFTS NWD ACROSS SE TX
AND SW LA.

THE QUALITY AND EXPANSE OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR ARE OF SOME
CONCERN TODAY ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. ONGOING CONVECTION/CLOUDS
WILL TEND TO SLOW NWD DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NE TX AND NRN LA AND
AREAS FARTHER TO THE N.  THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WILL BE CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR W OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL/N TX INTO CENTRAL OK...WITH A
GRADUAL EWD SHIFT OF THIS AXIS INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  OF
THE ONGOING STORMS...THE MORE PROBABLE AREA FOR A CONTINUING SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE TX THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE LOW
LEVELS WILL WARM AND MOISTEN SOONER THAN AREAS TO THE N.  COMBINED
WITH CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG THROUGH THE LOW-MID LEVELS TO
SUPPORT A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS ALONG THE SRN FLANK OF THE ONGOING
STORMS...WHERE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON FROM N TX INTO CENTRAL OK ALONG THE SURFACE
DRYLINE...GENERALLY ALONG OR E OF A LINE FROM ALVA TO OKC TO DFW. 
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
SURFACE HEATING BENEATH THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT...WHERE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE RANGE OF 56-60 F AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S SHOULD
RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-1500 J/KG.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES ACROSS ERN OK AND NE
TX THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE WIDTH AND QUALITY OF THE WARM
SECTOR BEING THE PRIMARY LIMIT ON THE AREA AND MAGNITUDE OF THE
THREAT.  THE AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A LARGER BAND AND
MOVE EWD ACROSS WRN AND SRN AR/CENTRAL AND NRN LA/WRN MS BY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ALONG
THE WARM FRONT TO THE SE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND.  THIS
CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS...AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES.

..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 03/21/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.