[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 211238
SWODY1
SPC AC 211236

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 AM CST MON MAR 21 2005

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE
AUS 10 W AUS 20 SE DAL 35 SW MLC 35 WNW PGO HOT 35 ESE ELD 30 NNE
POE 50 ESE AUS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW
PSX 40 ESE DRT 30 N DRT 25 E SPS 30 NNE FSI 40 NNE GAG 35 WNW P28 15
ESE ICT 60 ENE LIT 25 SW UOX 60 SSW SEM 10 SE PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N ALM 35 SSE TCS
50 ENE SAD 55 SSW SOW 60 W SOW 10 ENE FLG 65 NE INW 20 WNW GNT 25 N
ONM 35 N ALM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE CRP 10 NW DRT
55 NNW DRT 35 S SPS 30 SSW CDS 25 SE LAA 30 WNW HLC 35 S SZL 50 NE
MKL GAD 55 E MCN 30 ENE SAV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N ACV 30 SSW RBL
25 WNW SAC 20 NNW MRY.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN TX/SERN
OK/SWRN AR/NWRN LA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS
ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...

...SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
VIGOROUS UPPER SYSTEM WITH PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WAS
EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.
 DEEP ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL WAA...IS
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OK AND TX...SOME OF WHICH
HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED LARGE HAIL.  SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED AND SHIFT ONLY SLOWLY ESEWD INTO S-CENTRAL
KS/N-CENTRAL OK THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/DRY
LINE WILL BULGE EWD INTO CENTRAL OK/N-CENTRAL TX...AND TRAIL SSWWD
FROM NEAR PRX INTO THE TX COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY.  PRIMARY
CONCERN REGARDING QUALITY OF WARM SECTOR AIR MASS WILL CENTER ON TWO
POINTS...1) DELAYED SURFACE HEATING FROM EARLY STORMS AND 2) DEGREE
OF GULF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF SYSTEM INTO ERN TX/ERN OK.  MODELS
IN AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING ONGOING STORMS ACROSS ERN OK INTO NERN
TX FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.  HOWEVER...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OUTRUN
DRY LINE AND ALLOW SEVERAL HOURS HEATING TO OCCUR AHEAD OF DRY LINE
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW AXIS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP NWD INTO PARTS OF OK AND MUCH OF ERN
TX...AS 55+F SURFACE DEW POINTS BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM E-CENTRAL OK
SWD.  SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION
AS 100+ KT H25 JET AND 70-80 KT H5 SPEED MAX SPREAD EWD ACROSS TX.

ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS IT
SHIFTS ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN TX AND ERN OK WITH OCCASIONAL LARGE
HAIL.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REINFORCE COOL/STABLE AIR INTO
SRN MO/CENTRAL AR/FAR NERN OK AND LIMIT NEWD EXTENT OF SEVERE
THREAT. AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES THIS MORNING...STORMS MAY BECOME
INCREASINGLY SURFACE-BASED AND SUPPORT WIND DAMAGE/ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MORE VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED STORMS
MAY FORM IN WAKE OF EARLIER STORMS...NEARER THE DRY LINE.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH ANY PERSISTENT/DISCRETE
STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG WITHIN MDT RISK
AREA...ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL.

A SECOND AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEARER
THE LOW CENTER INTO NRN/CENTRAL OK AND FAR S-CENTRAL KS.  THOUGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MORE LIMITED...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES BENEATH
-20C TO -22C MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR
SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO.


STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE SEVERE MCSS THIS EVENING
OVER ERN OK/WRN AR AND ERN TX AND SHIFT EWD TOWARDS THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  ANY LINEAR ORGANIZATION WILL ENHANCE
DAMAGING WIND THREAT...THOUGH VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL ALSO SUSTAIN A
THREAT OF TORNADOES WELL AFTER DARK.

..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 03/21/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.