[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 210051
SWODY1
SPC AC 210049

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 PM CST SUN MAR 20 2005

VALID 210100Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE
OKC OKC 20 E CSM GCK 40 ESE GLD 35 NW HLC 40 NNE RSL 15 NE HUT 15 S
PNC 40 ENE OKC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ORF 15 NNW RIC
35 SSW DCA 20 ESE ILG 25 SSW JFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW MIA 10 S MIA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE BLI 25 SE SEA
25 NNE OTH ...CONT... 10 N CEC 60 SSW SVE 55 NNE FAT 45 NNE BFL 15
NW BFL 25 SW PRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW POE 45 SW LFK
20 SW CLL 35 N SAT 20 ENE JCT 20 SE ABI 10 NNE CDS 45 NW PVW 30 WNW
CVS 25 NE 4CR 45 WNW ONM 55 WSW GCN 40 E DRA 25 S U31 60 SSE BNO 45
WSW BKE 25 WNW GEG 50 E 63S 45 N 3TH 10 NNE DLN 35 WNW JAC 35 SW LND
25 ENE RWL 25 N SNY 15 WNW BBW 10 SSE GRI 10 NNE MHK 50 SSW JLN 30 E
PGO 20 ENE TXK 40 NW POE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/NRN OK AND
CNTRL/WRN KS...

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
PROFILERS/VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A COUPLE OF VORT MAXIMA TRAVELING
THROUGH SRN CO/NRN NM ALONG THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF 50-70 KT H5 JET. 
STRONG UVV IN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET HAS BEEN FAVORABLE FOR
GROWING CONVECTION ACROSS WRN KS SWD INTO WCNTRL OK.  STORMS WERE
DEVELOPING WITHIN A NARROW WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW
POINTS/TEMPS IN THE 40S/60-70F RESPECTIVELY. STRONGER STORMS SEEM TO
BE DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN KS WHERE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES WERE THE
STEEPEST/H5 TEMPS AOB MINUS 20C. MOREOVER...VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-45
KTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED TSTMS.  DIME-QUARTER SIZED HAIL
HAS ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED IN A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS.

TO THE SOUTH...THE 00Z OUN/FWD SOUNDINGS SHOWED WARMER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND WEAK BUOYANCY...LIKELY MITIGATING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION THUS FAR.

AS THE MID-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EWD...STRONG LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS.  TSTMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ENEWD ACROSS WRN/CNTRL KS.  FARTHER
S...AS MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN AND STRONGER LIFT APPROACH...
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TSTMS TO
DEVELOP SWD ACROSS WRN/CNTRL OK AND INTO N TX LATER TONIGHT.

HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS WILL
EXIST FROM CNTRL/NRN OK NWD INTO KS WHERE THE STRONGEST UVV/BUOYANCY
WILL EXIST.  FARTHER S...ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT.

..RACY.. 03/21/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.