[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 202003
SWODY1
SPC AC 202002

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CST SUN MAR 20 2005

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE CRP 15 WSW COT
50 ENE DRT 35 SSE ABI 45 WNW CDS 25 SW EHA 25 SSE TAD 40 NNE LVS 25
WNW SAF 55 WSW GCN 40 E DRA 25 S U31 60 SSE BNO 45 WSW BKE 25 WNW
GEG 50 E 63S 45 N 3TH 10 NNE DLN 35 WNW JAC 35 SW LND 25 ENE RWL 25
N SNY 15 WNW BBW 10 SSE GRI 10 NNE MHK 50 SSW JLN 30 E PGO 30 S HOT
40 NE MEI 45 SSW SEM 10 S PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE BLI 25 SE SEA
25 NNE OTH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N CEC 25 N RBL 55
NNE FAT 45 NNE BFL 15 NW BFL 25 SW PRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE ECG 45 S RIC
35 SE CHO 20 ENE CHO 25 SSE MRB 20 E HGR 40 WNW CXY 30 NW CXY 25 WSW
ABE 15 ESE NEL.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SWRN KS / WRN AND CENTRAL OK / CENTRAL AND ERN TX...
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S ARE SPREADING NWD INTO S CENTRAL / SWRN
KS...AND INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION OF SRN
OK / N TX.  THIS MEAGER MOISTURE ADVECTION COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S HAS RESULTED IN MINIMAL
DESTABILIZATION /SURFACE-BASED CAPE AOB 500 J/KG/ FROM OK SWD INTO
NRN AND CENTRAL TX.  

SURFACE OBS ALSO INDICATE THAT DRYLINE IS DEVELOPING FROM THE TX
PANHANDLE SSEWD INTO CENTRAL TX INVOF SJT.  WITH CONTINUED HEATING /
MIXING OF BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT DRYLINE TO MIX EWD INTO WRN OK /
ACROSS CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  WITH CU FIELD DEVELOPING
ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION ATTM...A FEW SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
-- CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS OR MARGINAL HAIL -- MAY
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD WAIT UNTIL THIS
EVENING HOWEVER...AS CYCLONICALLY-ARCING LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS FROM
SWRN TX NEWD INTO OK AND THEN NWD / NNWWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CYCLONE.  BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...MODELS
SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS / SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD BE
ONGOING FROM ERN CO / WRN AND CENTRAL KS / SWRN NEB ACROSS OK AND
INTO NRN AND CENTRAL TX.  THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED...FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR SUGGEST A
THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

...SERN LA / FAR SERN MS...
RELATIVELY STABLE / CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
INVOF THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER AS REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS
CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.  THOUGH
WIND FIELD REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION
BASED ON LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES...FLOW SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME
AS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW INDICATED OVER W CENTRAL LA MOVES EWD. 
COMBINATION OF FORECAST DECREASE IN WIND FIELD AND PERSISTENCE OF
CAPPED / STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST ONLY A LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE
THREAT THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS AREA.

..GOSS.. 03/20/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.