[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 201242
SWODY1
SPC AC 201240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0640 AM CST SUN MAR 20 2005

VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 4BK 50 ESE CEC 50 ESE
MHS 30 ESE FAT 35 SW FAT MRY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE BLI 20 SE SEA
15 SSE ONP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E CRP 15 NW SAT 50
NE JCT 40 ESE CDS 55 W GAG 35 SE LHX 35 W TAD 10 NW 4SL 60 NNE IGM
25 NNE DRA TPH 35 NE LOL 45 NE WMC 30 WSW GEG 30 ENE 63S 40 W FCA 20
NE BTM 30 SE JAC 25 E RKS 20 NNW CYS 40 ENE SNY 35 N EAR 30 WNW JLN
40 N TXK 35 SW GWO 20 W 0A8 20 SW CEW.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
MCV FROM OVERNIGHT MCS IS WELL DEFINED OVER S-CENTRAL LA AT
12Z...WITH ARCING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING WELL INTO THE WRN
GULF OF MEXICO.  THOUGH MCV WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL DEFINED AND
SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...QUALITY OF BOUNDARY LAYER AIR REMAINS RATHER
QUESTIONABLE.  SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE TRACKING EWD FASTER THAN
PRECEEDING SSELY SURFACE WINDS CAN BRING MODIFIED GULF AIR NWD INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THIS MORNING.  EXPECT ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL UNDERGO FURTHER WEAKENING AS A RESULT. 
HOWEVER...WITH SOME HEATING AND ADVECTION OF 60+F SURFACE DEW POINTS
ALONG AND JUST INLAND FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP AGAIN NEAR THE MCV LATER THIS MORNING.  IN
FACT...MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDING FROM SIL /USING SURFACE TEMP AROUND 70F
AND DEW POINT NEAR 60F/ INDICATES LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
SHOULD SUFFICIENT CLEARING OCCUR IN WAKE OF MORNING STORMS...GIVEN
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  AREA MAY NEED UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK
LATER THIS MORNING IF IT BECOMES APPARENT AIR MASS WILL INDEED
RECOVER.

...ERN TX INTO SWRN KS/NWRN OK... 
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL TX LATER TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN
HIGH PLAINS.  IN RESPONSE...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER
SERN CO WITH A DRY LINE/TROUGH EXPECTED TO BECOME WELL DEFINED FROM
THE LOW SSEWD INTO WRN OK AND NWRN/CENTRAL TX BY LATER TODAY.  EAST
OF THIS BOUNDARY...SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS.  HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE COLD POOL FROM MCS OVER THE WRN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL HINDER GULF MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY.  THUS...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
SPARSE WITH DEW POINTS AOB 50F EXPECTED NORTH OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY.  DESPITE THIS...MODEST HEATING AND VERY COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SUGGEST LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRY LINE THIS AFTERNOON. 
SHOULD STORMS FORM THIS AFTERNOON...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
QUITE ISOLATED WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL/WIND.  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR MORE LIKELY FROM
CENTRAL/ERN KS AND OK INTO NERN TX AFTER DARK AS SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS
ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.  STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL DUE
TO THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR. 
GIVEN QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...OVERALL THREAT LEVEL
REMAINS BELOW A SLGT ATTM.

...NRN/CENTRAL CA...
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD INTO THE PAC NW.  ONGOING
STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE PRODUCED HAIL...AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING STEEPENS
LAPSE RATES.  THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL...STRONGER
CELLS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS.

..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 03/20/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.