[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 201632
SWODY1
SPC AC 201630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST SUN MAR 20 2005

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE BLI 25 SE SEA
25 NNE OTH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N CEC 25 N RBL 55
NNE FAT 45 NNE BFL 15 NW BFL 25 SW PRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW LRD 25 NNE HDO
50 S BWD 30 NNE ABI 40 NW EHA 20 WNW TAD 35 SSE ALS 25 WNW SAF 55
WSW GCN 40 E DRA 25 S U31 60 SSE BNO 45 WSW BKE 25 WNW GEG 50 E 63S
45 N 3TH 10 NNE DLN 35 WNW JAC 35 SW LND 25 ENE RWL 25 N SNY 15 WNW
BBW 10 SSE GRI 10 NNE MHK 50 SSW JLN 30 E PGO 30 S HOT 40 NE MEI 45
SSW SEM 10 S PNS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...KS/OK/TX AREA...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CA/NV WILL MOVE EWD TO THE CENTRAL
AND SRN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS TROUGH WILL BE
PRECEDED BY OTHER SMALLER SCALE SPEED MAXIMA WITHIN A PRONOUNCED SRN
STREAM JET.  LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS UNDERWAY ACROSS SE CO AND THIS LOW
SHOULD DEEPEN AND MOVE TOWARD SWRN KS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
GREAT BASIN TROUGH.  S OF THE LEE CYCLONE...A LEE TROUGH/DEVELOPING
DRYLINE WILL CONSOLIDATE SSEWD ACROSS FROM THE LEE CYCLONE INTO NW
TX THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
50S ARE LIMITED TO S CENTRAL AND E TX IN THE WAKE OF A LONG-LIVED
MCS OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH MID-UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS
CONFINED TO DEEP S TX.

RESIDUAL L0W-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 40S
TO LOW 50S/ WILL SPREAD NWD/NWWD ACROSS NW TX/OK/SW KS IN RESPONSE
TO THE DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO WARM
TO THE MID 60S IN SW KS AND 75-80 F ACROSS NW TX...RESULTING IN WEAK
INSTABILITY /SBCAPE OF 250-750 J/KG/ IN A NARROW CORRIDOR E OF THE
LEE TROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES.  DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE
DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR...AND THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS BEGINNING THIS
EVENING INVOF SW KS AND DEVELOPING SWD ACROSS OK/N TX INTO TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
INLAND FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE W EDGE OF
THE GULF MCS OUTFLOW.  

...LOWER MS VALLEY...
A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD OVER E TX...THOUGH AN
EMBEDDED MCV IS MOVING EWD AND APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING OVER LA. 
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM E TX
ACROSS LA TO SRN MS...THOUGH RELATIVELY POOR BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
INLAND SUGGESTS THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN
MARGINAL.

..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 03/20/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.