[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 200543
SWODY1
SPC AC 200541

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CST SAT MAR 19 2005

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 4BK 50 SW MHS 45 ENE
RBL 30 ESE FAT 35 SW FAT MRY ...CONT... 45 ENE BLI 20 SE SEA 15 SSE
ONP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE BRO 25 ESE COT
35 SSE BWD 45 SW SPS 20 WNW GAG 40 ESE LIC 30 WSW COS 20 ESE FMN 60
NNE IGM 25 NNE DRA TPH 35 NE LOL 45 NE WMC 30 WSW GEG 30 ENE 63S 40
W FCA 35 W BZN 55 SW GCC 35 SE MHN 20 NNW BIE 15 SW SGF 35 SSE HOT
15 S GWO 30 N MGM 20 S CSG 20 SSW ABY AQQ.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN TX WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE CNTRL
GULF COASTAL AREA SUNDAY WHILE WEAKENING.  ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN
UPSTREAM TO THE ENERGETIC MID-LEVEL JET NOW MOVING INTO THE SWRN
STATES.  LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL
ARRIVE IN THE SRN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY.  AT THE SURFACE...WRN PORTION
OF A WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO THE DEEP S/TX EARLY SUNDAY WILL
REDEVELOP NWWD AS A LEE-TROUGH INTENSIFIES OVER THE TX HIGH PLAINS.

...CNTRL GULF COAST REGION...
LATE SATURDAY ERN TX MCS BECAME WELL-DEVELOPED AND WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN WELL MAINTAINED THE NEXT 24-HRS. STRONGEST PORTION OF THE MCS
WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.  BUT...NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION WILL
SKIRT ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.  CLOUDS
WILL PROBABLY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AND THE DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD
RELAX WITH TIME AS ATTENDANT H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEAKENS.  WILL
MAINTAIN A LOW PROBABILITY OF A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR HAILSTONE
ACROSS THIS AREA IN CASE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION BECOME STRONGER
THAN FORECAST.

...SRN PLAINS...
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL GRADUALLY RECOVER IN WAKE OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT
MCS.  APPROACH OF THE SWRN US TROUGH/JET WILL INDUCE LEE-TROUGH/
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND INCREASING SELY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT 50S/60S DEW POINTS NWWD BENEATH STEEP
LAPSE RATES.  THOUGH LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS DO NOT SPREAD EWD
UNTIL AFTER DARK...THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAKLY CYCLONIC. 
THUS...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A FEW TSTMS COULD DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE FROM N TX INTO SRN KS. 
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD HEAT CONSIDERABLY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT
WILL AUGMENT UPDRAFT ACCELERATION.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
THE STORMS WOULD BE HIGH BASED AND LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL MITIGATE
WIDESPREAD STORMS.  BUT...INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD SUPERCELLS IF STORMS INDEED FORM WITH
HAIL OR STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...THE ISOLD TSTMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ELEVATED
AND EXPAND WITH TIME AS WARM ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT
INCREASE.  STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ENEWD INTO SRN KS/ERN OK AND NERN
TX AND MAY CONTAIN ISOLD LARGE HAIL.

..RACY/CROSBIE.. 03/20/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.