[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 200050
SWODY1
SPC AC 200048

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 PM CST SAT MAR 19 2005

VALID 200100Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE
CRP 30 W ALI 25 N COT 35 ESE TPL 25 SSW SHV 20 WNW HEZ 30 ESE BTR 30
SSW HUM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW TOL 40 N CLE
10 SSW ERI 25 E PKB 25 NNW BKW TYS 30 SSW CSV 50 WSW CSV 30 SW BNA
20 ESE CKV 30 ENE SDF 10 WNW TOL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N OTH 25 ESE DLS
40 SSE ALW 10 NNW ENV 40 SSE ELY 60 ESE BIH 30 WNW EDW 20 S MRY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N BRO 55 S LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE DRT 25 NNW HDO
20 SE SEP 25 E DAL 25 SE TXK 35 WSW GLH 40 SSW TCL 20 S MGM 10 NE
PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CHS RWI 20 WNW
ORF 50 ESE ORF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-UPPER TX COAST
INTO SRN LA...

...MID-UPPER TX COAST TO SRN LA...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS CNTRL TX THIS
EVENING.  ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SERN TX
AND SRN LA THROUGH THE NIGHT.  ONGOING TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL
INTO A MCS AND MOVE TOWARD SWRN/SCNTRL LA LATER THIS EVENING.  

VAD WIND/PROFILERS SHOW VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS AND A FEW
SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED EARLY THIS EVENING.  00Z LCH/CRP
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A POCKET OF DRY AIR EXISTS IN THE MID-LEVELS
AND TSTMS HAVE GENERATED WELL-DEVELOPED COLD POOLS...MAKING FOR
SHORT-LIVED OR PULSE-TYPE ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURES.  

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY FAVOR
THE CORRIDOR NORTH OF THE SEABREEZE AND SOUTH OF A WEAK FRONT FROM
KCLL TO SWRN LA.  BOUNDARY LAYER HEATED CONSIDERABLY IN THIS ZONE
AND STRONGEST MASS CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY EXIST HERE THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING.  

MAGNITUDE OF BUOYANCY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
LARGE HAIL.  BUT...AS STORMS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AND MERGE INTO A
MCS...DAMAGING WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE MORE OF A CONCERN DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS SWRN/SCNTRL LA.

A FEW TSTMS MAY BACKBUILD SWWD ALONG A SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM EAST-SOUTH OF KSAT THIS EVENING AS THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS YET TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA.  THESE STORMS MIGHT POSE A
HAIL THREAT RATHER THAN A WIND THREAT AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY UNDERCUT ANY STORM THAT MIGHT FORM.

..RACY.. 03/20/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.