[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 191951
SWODY1
SPC AC 191949

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CST SAT MAR 19 2005

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE
CRP 20 NNW LRD 15 ENE DRT 30 SW JCT 50 N CLL 45 NNW POE 25 ESE ESF
20 NE BTR 30 SW HUM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW ILM GSB 25 NE
ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N OTH 25 ESE DLS
40 SE ALW 55 NW ENV 15 SSE ELY 60 SE BIH 45 WNW BFL 20 S MRY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE MFE 55 SSE LRD
...CONT... 20 NW DRT 25 ENE SJT 40 NNW DAL 35 N SHV 50 N MLU 50 N
GLH DYR 20 SSW BMG 45 SSE SBN 45 SSW JXN 40 SSE DTW 15 SW YNG 15 W
LBE EKN 40 SSE JKL 25 SSE HSV 25 NNE SEM 20 S CEW.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN
TX EWD INTO SRN LA...

...SYNOPSIS...
VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS WRN AND INTO CENTRAL TX ATTM -- WITHIN
BROADER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS / NRN MEXICO -- WILL
CONTINUE EWD ACROSS TX TOWARD THE WRN GULF.  ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE
UVV AND PRESENCE OF STALLING FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL TX WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  

...S TX / THE HILL COUNTRY ENEWD INTO SRN LA...
INITIAL CLUSTER OF STRONG / SEVERE STORMS HAS DEVELOPED JUST S OF
JCT...WITH STORMS FORECAST TO INCREASE EWD / SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF
SRN / SERN TX THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. 
HEATING OF BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS SHOULD CONTINUE...WHICH ALONG WITH
COMBINATION OF DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S AND STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF 1000 TO 2000
J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION INTO THIS EVENING.

THOUGH FAIRLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT TORNADO THREAT WILL
REMAIN LIMITED...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED /
SUPERCELL STORMS.  RESULTING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS WITHIN
RELATIVELY COOL LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL CAN
BE EXPECTED -- INCLUDING SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAILSTONES IN EXCESS OF
2" IN DIAMETER.  LATER THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING...STORMS MAY EVOLVE
INTO AN MCS OVER SERN TX -- POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS IN ADDITION TO ONGOING HAIL THREAT.  THOUGH LESSER CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT EXISTS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN LA THIS
AFTERNOON...MCS ALONG WITH SOME SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SPREAD EWD
ACROSS THE SABINE RIVER INTO SRN LA OVERNIGHT.

..GOSS.. 03/19/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.