[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 191641
SWODY1
SPC AC 191639

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1039 AM CST SAT MAR 19 2005

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE
CRP 20 NW LRD 40 ESE DRT 30 ESE JCT 40 E TPL 55 NW ESF 25 NE HEZ MCB
25 SW HUM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CRE 20 NE RWI
35 NE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N OTH 25 ESE DLS
40 SE ALW 55 NW ENV 15 SSE ELY 60 SE BIH 45 WNW BFL 20 S MRY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE MFE 55 SSE LRD
...CONT... 20 SE DRT 15 WSW JCT 25 SSE BWD 15 SSE FTW 15 N SHV 50 N
MLU 50 N GLH DYR 20 SSW BMG 45 SSE SBN 45 SSW JXN 40 SSE DTW 15 NNW
CAK 20 W HLG 40 NE CRW 30 S JKL 25 SSE HSV 25 NNE SEM 20 S CEW.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SRN/ERN TX INTO LA...

...SRN/ERN TX INTO LA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER VORTICITY MAX DEVELOPING NEAR ELP
WITHIN A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING RAPIDLY EWD
ACROSS THE SWRN STATES AND NRN MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTO CENTRAL/SRN TX THIS AFTERNOON AND THE NWRN GULF OF
MEXICO/LA TONIGHT AS STRONG BAND OF MID/UPPER WINDS SURGE ESEWD
ACROSS NRN MEX TOWARD FAR SRN TX AND THE NWRN GULF.  AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SRN AR INTO CNTRL TX IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE ALLOWING MOISTURE TO RETURN NWD
INTO TX AND LA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN
THE LOW/MID 60S EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.  12Z DRT SOUNDING
SHOWED STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AND THESE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED
TO EXTEND EWD ACROSS SRN/ERN TX TOWARD LA AS COOLER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST.  CURRENT VISIBLE
IMAGERY INDICATES STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER SERN
TX/SWRN LA/FAR SRN TX/AND PARTS OF CENTRAL TX IN REGIONS OF FEWER
CLOUDS...CONTRIBUTING TO ENHANCED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THESE
AREAS. MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO REACH 1000-2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...PROMOTING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT
COUPLED WITH INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF
UPPER LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING ACROSS SRN/ERN TX INTO
SRN LA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-45
KT WITHIN THE LOWEST 6 KM INDICATES STRONGER CELLS WILL BECOME
SEVERE WITH PRIMARY THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. 
THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO PROMOTE ROTATING UPDRAFTS WHICH
INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY FOR VERY LARGE HAIL TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF TX.  THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS BY
TONIGHT WHICH WILL CONTINUE ENEWD ACROSS SERN TX INTO LA TONIGHT.

..WEISS/BANACOS.. 03/19/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.