[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 191255
SWODY1
SPC AC 191253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 AM CST SAT MAR 19 2005

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE
CRP 45 SE SAT 25 SSW AUS 30 SSE TPL 55 NW ESF 25 NE HEZ MCB 25 SW
HUM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 30 WSW COT
10 ESE BWD 50 N FTW 60 W MEM 50 SSW HUF 20 E MMO 15 S AZO 20 SW CLE
15 WSW PKB 35 N HSV 15 WNW TOI 25 W PFN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE OAJ 20 SSE
ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW OTH 60 ESE DLS
60 W BOI 55 NW ENV 45 SE ELY 30 NW NID 25 W BFL 20 S MRY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN PART OF CENTRAL TX INTO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...

...SOUTHEAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN ACROSS THE TX COASTAL
PLAIN AND THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY.  THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
SSEWD MOVING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NWRN MS/WRN TN INTO
NRN LA AND CENTRAL TX BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.  SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN...WITH
SIMILAR READINGS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND THIS MORNING.  A FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING MOIST CONVECTION
INTO NRN/CENTRAL MS EARLY...BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING
QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. 
THIS WILL LEAVE MUCH OF SLGT RISK AREA IN WEAK SUBSIDENCE FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY.  HOWEVER...NEXT FAST MOVING SYSTEM IS EVIDENT ON WV
IMAGERY OVER SWRN TX/NRN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO WHICH SHOULD OVERSPREAD
ERN TX LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

12Z SOUNDING FROM LCH SUPPORTS 09Z RUC FORECAST OF MAINTAINING
MODEST CAPPING NEAR H85 THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.  HOWEVER...
COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR SURFACE FRONT
AND INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY INTO PART OF
CENTRAL/ERN TX INTO LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AROUND 40 KT...SUGGESTING STORMS WHICH DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  MOST LIKELY SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE QUITE LARGE
NEAR THE TX COAST PLAIN WHERE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RICHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT STRONG INSTABILITY.  STORMS MAY
DEVELOP INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR SMALL LINES AND SHIFT ESEWD OFF
THE TX COAST AND INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 03/19/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.