[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 181626
SWODY1
SPC AC 181624

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1024 AM CST FRI MAR 18 2005

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E PSX 35 W HOU 30
NW LFK 45 SW TXK 10 SW FSM 15 ESE JLN 30 ESE MKC 35 SW P35 60 WNW
DSM 30 SSE SPW 20 SSE MSP 40 ESE EAU 30 W OSH 15 ESE CGX 10 ESE DNV
55 WNW JAN 30 SSE LCH.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT 1002 MB SURFACE CYCLONE OVER NWRN IA
WILL TRACK EWD ALONG WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
IA TO CENTRAL OH. SURFACE LOW WILL REACH NWRN IL BY 19/12Z. SSWWD
EXTENDING COLD FRONT ACROSS E-CENTRAL KS INTO CENTRAL OK WILL MOVE
EWD INTO WRN MO THIS AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED BAND OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE.

IN THE SRN STREAM...STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY
ACROSS NRN BAJA CA WILL TRANSLATE RAPIDLY EWD REACHING THE UPPER TX
COASTAL PLAIN BY 19/12Z.

DESPITE THESE DYNAMICAL FEATURES...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED OWING TO LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

...AR TO IA/IL...

IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT...DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE LOW CENTER SWD
ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN MO INTO AR. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE
20S AND 30S...AND  A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE
W-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE LIMITED WITHIN
WARM SECTOR. AN AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY /100-500 J/KG/
COINCIDENT WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT ACROSS MO AND AR.
STRONG DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LIFT MAY
RESULT IN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES IN VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW
TRACK DESPITE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS IA/IL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

...SRN MN TO SRN WI...

ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE OCCURRED ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER
SINCE 11Z AND CONTINUE POSSIBLE WITH NARROW...E-W AXIS OF BANDED
SNOW NORTH OF WARM FRONT. AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING SHIFTS EWD INTO WRN/SWRN WI THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY SUPPORT A
FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH SYMMETRIC
INSTABILITY AND FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION.

...SERN/ERN TX AND WRN LA...
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD /AFTER 06Z/...MID-LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NRN BAJA CA WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT ERN AND SERN TX...INCLUDING THE UPPER COASTAL PLAIN.
WRN GULF AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DEVELOPMENT OF SLY 30-40KT LOW-LEVEL JET...JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...MAY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MOISTENING FOR ISOLATED ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SERN TX TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MOVEMENT ENEWD TOWARD WRN LA.

..BANACOS/IMY.. 03/18/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.