[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 181958
SWODY1
SPC AC 181956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CST FRI MAR 18 2005

VALID 182000Z - 191200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E PSX 35 W HOU 30
NW LFK 45 SW TXK 10 SW FSM 15 ESE JLN MKC 20 WSW DSM MCW LSE VOK 35
NE MSN 15 ESE CGX 10 ESE DNV 55 WNW JAN 30 SSE LCH.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION IS STILL IN
RECOVERY FROM COOLING/DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH DE-AMPLIFYING
TROUGH...WHICH IS NOW ACCELERATING AWAY FROM SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL
AREAS. PROCESS IS SLOW...AND SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE ONLY INCREASED
INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON. 
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
TODAY/TONIGHT...DESPITE AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SET UP.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN BELT OF WESTERLIES EMANATING
FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA...REMAINS FAIRLY VIGOROUS
AS IT TURNS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY.  SYSTEM IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLONE...AND WARM MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ADVECTED OFF HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...MISSOURI/IOWA/ILLINOIS AREA...
LATEST SURFACE DATA SUPPORT MODEL PROGS INDICATING THAT LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG AN AXIS NORTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD MO
THROUGH AREAS EAST OF KANSAS CITY AND DES MOINES BY LATE AFTERNOON. 
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUS FOR STEEPENING MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING/HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD
REGION.  DESTABILIZATION STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME SUFFICIENT
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...SPREADING ACROSS THE RIVER INTO
ILLINOIS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AS LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT COOLS AND
LAPSE RATES STABILIZE.

...ARKANSAS INTO UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS...
WITH STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING CONFINED TO AREAS FARTHER NORTH...
MID-LEVEL CAPPING LIKELY WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS.  HOWEVER...DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...VEERING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS WARM
ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN ARKANSAS.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FINALLY WORKS ITS WAY NORTHWARD OUT OF EASTERN TEXAS.

BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AS LOW AMPLITUDE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ACCELERATES EASTWARD FROM THE MEXICAN
PLATEAU.  MODELS SUGGEST SOME PHASING OF THIS FEATURE WITH NORTHERN
BRANCH SYSTEM...WHICH COULD SUPPORT NARROW PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF
STORMS ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... PERHAPS AS
FAR SOUTH AS UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
 DESTABILIZATION STILL DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

..KERR.. 03/18/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.