[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 180543
SWODY1
SPC AC 180541

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CST THU MAR 17 2005

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S SPW 30 W RST 20
N LSE 35 SW OSH 20 ESE CGX 15 NE DNV 30 ENE MVN DYR 50 W UOX 40 SSE
GLH 20 NNW HEZ 40 NW ESF SHV 50 ENE PRX 30 W FSM 25 SSE JLN 30 SW
SZL 40 SW P35 55 W DSM 30 S SPW.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST STARTING THE DAY OVER WRN IA AND ENDING UP BY EARLY SATURDAY
OVER NRN IL. AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...CONFLUENT DOWNSTREAM FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN COLD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND ERN
SEABOARD...WHILE UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
NRN ROCKIES. MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDWEST STORM
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST. WEAKER
PERTURBATIONS BREAKING AWAY FROM STRONG ERN PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
TRAVEL EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND TX WITHIN BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THESE AREAS.

...MIDWEST/MID MS VLY...
RECENT PASSAGE OF STRONG SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL INTRUSION WELL INTO THE GULF AND WRN ATLANTIC COMBINED WITH
PRIMARILY LOW AMPLITUDE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND LOWER MS
VALLEY...WILL RESULT IN LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MIDWEST
CYCLONE. HOWEVER...HIGHER SUN ANGLE AND WLY FLOW OFF ELEVATED
TERRAIN...COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL ASCENT...WILL MAINTAIN
A PLUME OF STEEP LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE CNTRL
PLAINS TO THE MID MS VLY THIS PERIOD. SLOW MOISTENING AND MIXING
WITHIN PERSISTENT WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM CNTRL IA TO THE ARKLATEX
WILL OCCUR BENEATH/WITHIN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME AND RESULT IN
GRADUAL WEAK DESTABILIZATION BY LATE IN THE DAY. CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WHERE DEEP
MIXING WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED AND MARGINAL CAPE WILL DEVELOP IN THE
PRESENCE OF WEAK TO MODEST UPWARD MOTION. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CG LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITHIN THIS AXIS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY SLOWLY
DIMINISHES.

..CARBIN/GUYER.. 03/18/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.