[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 180100
SWODY1
SPC AC 180058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 PM CST THU MAR 17 2005

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE SUX 30 WNW EAR
40 W SNY 40 ENE RWL 45 NE CPR 20 S RAP 10 W FSD 25 W SPW 40 SE SUX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW MIA 15 N PBI.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN FL...
PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE WAS MOVING INTO THE FL STRAITS THIS EVENING
WITH MOSTLY STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD COVERING THE SRN 1/3RD OF THE
PENINSULA. ISOLATED POCKETS OF RESIDUAL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
FRONTAL AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
GULF COULD PROMOTE A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS OVER SOUTH FL THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING. SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW GIVEN LIMITED
CAPE ENVIRONMENT.

...NCNTRL PLAINS...
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH
WELL-DEFINED LEE-SIDE CYCLONE DEEPENING OVER WRN NEB THIS EVENING.
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
OVER NEB/SRN SD THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
WRN IA BY FRIDAY MORNING. EVENING RAOBS FROM THE ROCKIES TO WRN NEB
DEPICT VERY STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 9 C/KM. HOWEVER...
ANTECEDENT LOW AND MID LEVEL AIRMASS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS
VERY DRY AND THEREFORE CAPE IS MEAGER...IN THE RANGE OF 50-150 J/KG.
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MOISTENING WITHIN A NARROW E-W
CORRIDOR ALONG AND NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE...AS WELL AS NEAR THE
CYCLONE CENTER...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TSTMS OVERNIGHT. ANY
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE SPORADIC AND SHORT-LIVED GIVEN SCARCITY OF
CAPE.

..CARBIN.. 03/18/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.