[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 171941
SWODY1
SPC AC 171939

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 PM CST THU MAR 17 2005

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S
FMY 25 SSE VRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW PIE 25 N DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW HLC 30 WSW AKO
30 ENE ASE 40 ENE GJT 35 WNW RKS 20 NNW BPI 50 W COD 30 NE COD 35
ENE 81V 35 SSW MHE 15 N OFK 20 ESE GRI 30 NNW HLC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN FL PEN....

...FLORIDA...
SURFACE FRONT REMAINS OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...BUT CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED/GENERATED BOUNDARY IS NOW SOUTH OF A PALM BEACH/FORT MYERS
LINE.  THIS BOUNDARY MAY SHIFT NORTHWARD A BIT ALONG THE EAST
COAST...BEFORE CONVECTIVE LINE OVERSPREADS THE REMAINDER OF THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY HAS
GENERALLY STABILIZED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA...AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG
LOW/MID-LEVEL CONFLUENT BAND ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL STREAM. 
THIS BAND EXTENDS FROM VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE SOUTH
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  EASTWARD
PROGRESSION HAS BEEN VERY SLOW...WITH APPROACHING UPSTREAM TROUGH
AXIS JUST NOW SHIFTING EAST OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST. 
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ACCELERATION OF UPPER SYSTEM
WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THUS FAR...MID-LEVEL CAPPING HAS INHIBITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR/NORTHWEST OF THE MIAMI AREA...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING...AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. 
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM SQUALL LINE APPEARS TO PROVIDE MAIN CONVECTIVE
THREAT.  LINE HAS STRENGTHENED IN MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS OFF THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...AND MODELS SEEM TO SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD PROGRESS INTO THE COASTAL AREAS AROUND MIAMI BY THE 18/00-03Z
TIME FRAME.  CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SHEARED MODERATELY STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME...WHICH WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS NEAR STRONGER CELLS.

WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES THIS
EVENING...RISK APPEARS FAIRLY LOW.  CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LIKELY WILL
FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA AND KEYS TOWARD
18/06-09Z.

...NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS...
DAYTIME HEATING AND STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK IS SUPPORTING INCREASING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED
TO AREAS ALONG/SOUTH AND WEST OF SURFACE FRONT...WHICH CURRENTLY
EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.  BOUNDARY WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN
WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS FROM EAST
CENTRAL WYOMING INTO WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  DRYNESS OF AIR MASS
WILL LIMIT INTENSITY OF CONVECTION...AND ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET.

..KERR.. 03/17/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.