[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 161611
SWODY1
SPC AC 161609

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1009 AM CST WED MAR 16 2005

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW
TLH 10 S VLD 15 E SSI ...CONT... DAB 60 SSE FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW 7R4 25 N BTR
35 E JAN 15 W TCL 15 WNW ANB 20 NNE CAE 10 SSW ILM ...CONT... 30 S
PBI 65 NNE EYW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW HVR 65 ESE LWT
30 ENE COD 15 NNW JAC 15 NNW SUN 30 SSE BKE 30 E OLM 30 WNW CLM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER FLORIDA...

...FL...

TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER SWRN U.S. IS SHEARING ENEWD ACROSS SRN
PLAINS AND LWR MS VALLEY AS VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVES SEWD INTO
PAC NW.  SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL REDEVELOP EWD
TO OFF SERN ATLANTIC COAST AS SHEAR VORTICITY IN THE STRONG WSWLY
FLOW SPREADS EWD ACROSS SE STATES.  THIS SCENARIO WILL VEER LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO SWLY ACROSS FL TODAY AS FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY DRAPED
ENE-WSW NRN FL SHIFTS ONLY SLOWLY SWD.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER FL PENINSULA SUCH THAT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG.

LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LACK OF
STRONG UPPER FORCING AS TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO THE N AND NW ALONG WITH
LAPSE RATES GENERALLY AROUND 6C/KM.

ON THE POSITIVE SIDE IS THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 50 KT AND
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. PREDOMINANT THREAT WILL BE WIND DAMAGE WITH
FAST MOVING STORMS THAT EITHER DEVELOP OVER THE PENINSULA AS CAP
WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY...OR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS NOW OVER ERN GULF
THAT MOVE INLAND DURING AFTERNOON.

SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS MID/UPPER
FLOW REMAINS STRONG AND FRONT CONTINUES SLOWLY SEWD TO ACROSS
CENTRAL FL PENINSULA.

..HALES/DARROW.. 03/16/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.