[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 161252
SWODY1
SPC AC 161251

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 AM CST WED MAR 16 2005

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 60
SSE FMY ...CONT... 20 WNW AQQ 30 SW MGR 15 NE SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW 7R4 20 ESE LFT
35 ESE JAN 15 W TCL 15 WNW ANB 30 WSW CAE CRE ...CONT... 30 S PBI 65
W MIA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW LRD 35 W ALI
35 SSW VCT 25 WSW GLS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW HVR 65 ESE LWT
30 ENE COD 45 NE JAC 15 NW SUN 65 E BKE 35 WSW GEG 20 WSW SEA 15 E
CLM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF FL AND XTRM S
GA...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD...MULTI STREAM PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LOWER
48 THIS PERIOD.  TWO IMPULSES IN THE SRN-MOST STREAM /THAT EXTENDING
FROM NERN MEXICO NEWD ACROSS FL AND THE S ATLANTIC CST/ WILL RACE
NEWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...WHILE A STRONGER
IMPULSE OF MORE NRN ORIGIN TRACKS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE TO WRN AR.

THE SERN FRINGE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
WAVY FRONTAL ZONE THAT ATTM EXTENDS FROM OFF THE S TX GULF CST ENE
TO NEAR SAV.  THE FRONT...IN GENERAL...WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY E/SE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY /NOW NEAR AQQ/
REDEVELOPS NEWD OFF THE GA/SC CST.

...XTRM S GA/FL...
PORTION OF SHALLOW FRONT EXTENDING ENE FROM SURFACE WAVE NEAR AQQ
SHOULD LIFT NEWD ACROSS N FL AND XTRM S GA LATER TODAY AS WAVE
REDEVELOPS NEWD.  THIS WILL ALLOW MOIST MARITIME AIR TO OVERSPREAD
REGION BENEATH 65-70 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING
SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES.

DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE LIMITED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK.  BUT COMBINATION OF INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT/ EXISTING
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN PERIODIC
WAVES OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY.

VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH NEWD REDEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE WAVE AND GENERAL LOW AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELD
WILL TEND TO MINIMIZE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.  AMPLE
/50+ KT/ DEEP SWLY SHEAR WILL...NEVERTHELESS...BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT
EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS AND SMALL SCALE BOWS WITHIN THE LARGELY
LINEAR CONVECTIVE BAND.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.

FARTHER S...ONE OR TWO ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM WITH DAYTIME HEATING
IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF FRONT SWD INTO CNTRL FL. WEAK
CONVERGENCE SHOULD...HOWEVER...KEEP SUCH ACTIVITY AT A MINIMUM. 
LATER IN THE PERIOD A FEW STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...MAY AFFECT
WRN AND SWRN FL AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED TRAILING PORTION OF MAIN UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPACT REGION.  WHILE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL
ENHANCE DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY SHEAR...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE
SOMEWHAT MITIGATED BY TIME OF DAY.

...CNTRL GULF CST...
AN ELEVATED STORM OR TWO POSING A THREAT FOR HAIL MAY CLIP SERN LA
LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER FLOW TEMPORARILY BACKS AHEAD OF SRN END OF
TX SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
OVERRIDE AXIS OF 850-700 MB MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THIS REGION IN
WAKE OF PREVIOUS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES.

..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 03/16/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.