[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 151951
SWODY1
SPC AC 151949

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CST TUE MAR 15 2005

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE
BPT ESF HEZ MEI TOI 25 E MAI 35 E AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE ELP HOB 40 NNE
SJT BWD DAL PBF MEM 45 SSW BNA AVL 40 SSE EWN ...CONT... 15 NNE PBI
25 SSE FMY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS
OF THE GULF COAST....

SURFACE FRONT IS STILL EVIDENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON.  BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN/REDEVELOP NORTHWARD
INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN GEORGIA/GEORGIA COASTAL AREAS BY LATE
TONIGHT...WHILE REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY TO THE WEST...ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO AREAS JUST OFF THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS
COAST. ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION TO THE NORTH...AIR MASS IS MOIST AND
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE GULF COAST STATES.

LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION HAS ALREADY SUPPORTED
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE FRONT OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS. 
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING IN ENTRANCE REGION OF
INTENSIFYING UPPER JET STREAK...ATOP AMPLIFYING RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  UPSTREAM...A SHORT WAVE...EMBEDDED WITHIN
BROADER SCALE TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND
MEXICAN PLATEAU...IS PROGGED TO ACCELERATE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT.  THIS
FEATURE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED...BUT FORCING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF WAVE ALONG FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

...CENTRAL GULF STATES...
EVOLVING SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT GRADUAL INLAND DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS/LOUISIANA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...INTO EASTERN GULF STATES BY LATE TONIGHT. 
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES...ABOVE FRONTAL
INVERSION...APPEAR STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RISK OF HAIL IN STRONGER
STORMS.  BEST POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL SHOULD REMAIN IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST...WHERE INVERSION IS SHALLOWER AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS MORE FAVORABLE.  LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS
SURFACE WAVE APPROACHES IMMEDIATE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COASTAL
AREAS..RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO...COULD
INCREASE AS SURFACE-BASED INVERSION LAYER IS ERASED.

...RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER COLD SURGE MAY BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TEXAS BIG BEND AND AREAS
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.  HOWEVER...STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
BOUNDARY LAYER BASED DESTABILIZATION NOW APPEAR CONFINED TO THE
MEXICAN PLATEAU.  PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITH
STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BORDER...BUT STEERING FLOW COULD AID PROPAGATION  ACROSS THE
RIVER...ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...INTO TEXAS.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGEST CELLS BEFORE THEY WEAKEN AS THEY PROGRESS
NORTHEAST OF THE VALLEY.

LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION FIELD WILL BECOME FOCUSED AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH...
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.  THIS MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL VIGOROUS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ABOVE DEEPENING
FRONTAL INVERSION...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO POTENTIAL FOR
VERY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

..KERR.. 03/15/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.