[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 151625
SWODY1
SPC AC 151623

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1023 AM CST TUE MAR 15 2005

VALID 151630Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW
LCH 55 NW ESF 50 W JAN 25 E JAN 35 ESE MEI 35 NE CEW 20 NNW AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE ELP 45 NE ALM
25 N ROW 35 SW CDS 25 ESE LTS 40 WNW MLC 20 S DYR 30 N HSV 30 SSE
AND 45 S CRE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE PBI 25 SSE
FMY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
COMPLEX TROUGH WRN U.S. WITH PROGRESSIVE BROAD RIDGE ERN U.S. 
STRONG S/WV OVER NM SHIFTS EWD WHILE SRN STREAM IMPULSE MOVES
RAPIDLY ACROSS NRN MEXICO TO WRN GULF COAST BY TONIGHT.

PRONOUNCED FRONTAL ZONE HAS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL FL WWD ACROSS NRN
GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTREME S TX.  FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING NWD AS
WARM FRONT TODAY AS SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS OVER NWRN GULF AND MOVES
TO NEAR CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT.

S OF FRONT AIR MASS OVER GULF IS NOW QUITE MOIST WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AOA 70F.  ABOVE THE STABLE COLD FRONTAL DOME FROM TX EWD
ALONG GULF COAST RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7-8C/KM ARE IN PLACE.

...SRN LA EWD TO SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON FROM ERN TX ACROSS LOWER MS
VALLEY.  THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF EXPECTED ASCENT DUE TO WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE/APPROACH OF MEXICO S/WV TROUGH AND THE
ELEVATED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY INCREASE ABOVE THE COLD FRONTAL DOME
ON THE STRENGTHENING 850MB SWLY JET.

ELEVATED CAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
UNDER THIS ADVECTIVE REGIME ACROSS LWR MS VALLEY WHICH ALONG WITH
THE VERY STRONG 50-60KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL
FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS.  PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL
GIVEN STABLE LAYER BELOW FRONTAL INVERSION.  HOWEVER LATER
TONIGHT...WITH WARM FRONT NEARING CENTRAL GULF COAST THERE COULD BE
AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

...WRN TX...
STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING SWRN TX THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD GENERATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS 
AHEAD OF NM TROUGH.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL...A
FEW STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS GIVEN LAPSE
RATES OF 8C/KM OR GREATER AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 60 KT.

..HALES/JEWELL.. 03/15/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.