[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 160059
SWODY1
SPC AC 160058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 PM CST TUE MAR 15 2005

VALID 160100Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W
BVE 40 NNE MSY 30 WSW LUL 20 SE MEI 15 SW SEM 15 E TOI 25 ENE MAI 35
E AQQ.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MFE 35
S CRP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE PBI 25 SSE FMY
...CONT... ELP 35 NW MAF 45 ENE ABI 35 WSW PRX 35 WSW HOT 25 NNE MEM
20 NW MSL 15 ESE ANB 25 WNW MCN 40 NNW SAV 35 SSW CHS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE LA...SRN
MS...SRN AL AND FL PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTH TX...

...SE LA/SRN MS/SRN AL/FL...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS SE LA
EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET CURRENTLY POSITIONED
ACROSS SE LA IS FEEDING THE CONVECTION. AS THE JET STRENGTHENS THIS
EVENING AND SHIFTS EWD...THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE
...SPREADING NEWD ACROSS SRN MS...SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE
TONIGHT.

WINDS ARE BACKED ALONG THE COAST OF LA...MS AND AL DUE TO A WARM
FRONT CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE. THIS ALONG WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...IS CREATING STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 850 MB. THIS WILL
BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WITH CELLS THAT ROTATE AND
MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. AS THE CELLS MOVE
INLAND OVER A COOL DOME...THE STORMS WILL BECOME ELEVATED. THE 18Z
OBSERVED SOUNDING AT EGLIN AFB SHOWS STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 850
AND 500 MB SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SRN MS...SRN AL AND THE
FL PANHANDLE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

...FAR SOUTH TX...
AN ISOLATED ROTATING STORM IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN FAR SOUTH TX.
THIS ACTIVITY HAS FORMED IN MODERATE INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FOR SOUTH TX THIS EVENING SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF ABOUT 1500
J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 70 KT WHICH COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SFC-BASED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS
THE REGION.

...SW AND CNTRL TX...
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS WCNTRL TX JUST
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN NM. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 40S
F. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE STORMS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THEY TRACK EWD
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY THIS EVENING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 
500 MB TEMP AROUND -20C SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED HAIL. THE
CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS THE
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.

..BROYLES.. 03/16/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.