[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 151301
SWODY1
SPC AC 151300

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 AM CST TUE MAR 15 2005

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N VRB 30 SSE SRQ
...CONT... 45 ESE DUG 10 N SVC ONM 40 E LBB 25 NNE DUA 10 NE LIT 10
SE MSL 35 NNW AGS 45 SSW CHS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD TROUGH CONSISTING OF SEVERAL STREAMS OF FLOW WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DOWNSTREAM FROM
FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OFF THE W CST.  THE PATTERN SHOULD
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...WITH SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER ERN AZ EXPECTED
TO BE OVER NW TX BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.  FARTHER S...
DISTURBANCE NOW OVER CHIHUAHUA SHOULD ACCELERATE NE AHEAD OF AZ
TROUGH...AND REACH THE ARKLATEX BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WEAK RIDGING WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT THE SURFACE FROM THE CNTRL RCKYS
ACROSS MID MS AND OH VLYS TO THE MID ATLANTIC CST.  BOUNDARY MARKING
THE SRN EDGE OF THIS ANTICYCLONE HAS NOW BECOME JUST ABOUT
STATIONARY FROM S OF BRO ENE TO NEAR VRB.  THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO
LIFT NWD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HEIGHTS REBOUND AHEAD OF THE AZ
AND MEXICAN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. 

...SW/S CNTRL TX THIS AFTN...
CURRENT 11-3.9U SATELLITE DATA DEPICT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVER THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX NWD INTO THE DAVIS MTN REGION...THE
PECOS VLY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SUBSTANTIAL
DIURNAL HEATING TO OCCUR DOWNSTREAM FROM NRN MEXICAN UPPER IMPULSE.

COUPLED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S AND MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND -18 TO -20C...THIS SHOULD YIELD SUFFICIENT
SBCAPE /300-400 J PER KG/ TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. 
WEAK E/ENELY LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH 40-50 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL JET
WILL ENHANCE DEEP SHEAR/CONVERGENCE.  THUS...A FEW OF THE UPDRAFTS 
MAY BECOME PERSISTENT AND/OR EVOLVE INTO SMALL BANDS/CLUSTERS WITH
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND BRIEFLY STRONG WIND.  THE STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN WITH NIGHTFALL.

...LWR RIO GRANDE VLY OF TX TONIGHT...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER
THE LWR RIO GRANDE VLY AND PARTS OF DEEP S TX AS GLANCING INFLUENCE
OF EJECTING MEXICAN TROUGH ENHANCES LIFT ALONG STALLED SURFACE
FRONT. WHILE STOUT CAP SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT...IF
A FEW STORMS DO INDEED FORM...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL
GIVEN PRESENCE OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /PWS AOA 1 INCH/
BENEATH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME.

...CNTRL/ERN GULF CST LATER IN THE PERIOD...
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF CST
REGION AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER
SYSTEMS EJECTING NEWD ACROSS TX.  WHILE THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE NRN GULF...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP TO SUPPORT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ABOVE THE FRONTAL SURFACE NEWD INTO PARTS OF...SE
LA...SRN MS...CNTRL AND SRN AL/GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE.  BACKED
NATURE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS SUGGESTS THAT
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK...AND THAT HAIL THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED.  BUT 40-50 KT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WILL FOSTER STORM ROTATION.
 GIVEN INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN NEAR WARM
FRONT...THIS MAY POSE A LIMITED THREAT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO/HIGH WIND
REPORT LATER IN THE PERIOD FROM NEAR BVE TO PAM.

..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 03/15/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.