[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 141935
SWODY1
SPC AC 141933

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 PM CST MON MAR 14 2005

VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE
JAX 45 WSW JAX 15 SW VLD 35 SW ABY 15 WSW ABY 45 N AYS 35 WNW SAV 20
ESE SAV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW CEW 35 SSW MCN
60 ESE MCN 40 SE AGS 10 SSE CHS ...CONT... PBI 20 WSW FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CRP 10 NNW SAT
15 S SEP FTW 30 ESE PRX 30 SE ELD 30 SSW HUM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW FHU 70 SW PRC
45 NW PRC 60 NNE INW 25 ESE 4SL 20 ESE TCC 40 NNW CDS 30 E CDS 45
SSW LTS 45 NNW ABI 55 SE MAF 20 S P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN ACROSS PARTS OF SRN
GA/SOUTH CAROLINA....

...SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES...
COLD SURFACE RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO NOSE SOUTHWARD IN THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA IS PROGGED THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE IT CONTINUES INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT. 
THOUGH SUBSIDENT MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE INHIBITIVE OF MORE
SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BOUNDARY MAY BECOME FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN PEAK HEATING.  LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
BE MAXIMIZED VICINITY OF COASTAL AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF
JACKSONVILLE...WHERE BEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXISTS. GIVEN
FAVORABLE SHEAR BENEATH MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY UPPER
FLOW...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH MEAN MIXED CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGEST CELLS.

...SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES/PLAINS...
COOLING ALOFT AND FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  ACTIVITY
MAINLY WILL DEVELOP NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN...AND COULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY SOME HAIL/GUSTY WINDS...BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

AS TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS TOWARD A MORE NEUTRAL ORIENTATION LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT FLOW DOWNSTREAM MAY
ENHANCE LIFT ALONG STRONGER MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE /AROUND 700
MB/ ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.  MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WEAK CAPE FOR PARCELS BASED ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION ACROSS
THIS REGION BY 15/06Z...WHICH MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

...SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN PLATEAU SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WEAKENING
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL ACCELERATE FROM THE VICINITY OF THE BAJA
SPUR INTO THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU BY LATE TONIGHT.  IN RESPONSE
TO APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE...STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION REGIME IS PROGGED FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH
EASTERN TEXAS. CAP ABOVE RETURNING LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS...BUT THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY BY LATE TONIGHT FROM PARTS
OF EAST CENTRAL TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA.  ACTIVITY WILL BE
BASED ABOVE DEEP FRONTAL INVERSION LAYER.  HOWEVER...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
CAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...AND AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR HAIL...WHICH
COULD APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS.

..KERR.. 03/14/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.