[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 141618
SWODY1
SPC AC 141616

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1016 AM CST MON MAR 14 2005

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE
DAB 50 S GNV 15 WNW CTY 20 ESE TLH 20 NNW TLH 30 SW ABY 35 NNE MGR
20 S SAV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW PNS 55 NE MOB
35 E 0A8 15 SSW AHN 25 SW CAE 15 E CRE ...CONT... 15 SE VRB 30 NW
FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CRP 10 NNW SAT
15 S SEP FTW 30 ESE PRX 30 SE ELD 30 SSW HUM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW FHU 70 SW PRC
45 NW PRC 60 NNE INW 25 ESE 4SL 20 ESE TCC 40 NNW CDS 30 E CDS 45
SSW LTS 45 NNW ABI 55 SE MAF 20 S P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN GA/NRN FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS...COLD S/WV TROUGH NV/UT WILL CONTINUE SEWD INTO SRN
ROCKIES BY TONIGHT.  DOWNSTREAM FAST WLYS SRN U.S. WITH SLOWLY
RISING HEIGHTS.  COLD FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS SC THEN WSWWD
THRU CENTRAL GA TO OFFSHORE WRN FL PANHANDLE

...SRN GA/NRN FL...
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONSHORE NWRN FL COAST WILL
RESULT IN A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. REF MCD
289.  GIVEN THE 50-60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR BRIEF DAMAGING WIND
GUST WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT AS AIR MASS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE.

FURTHER N ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LITTLE COOLER
AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES PROVIDING A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE DURING AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW AND
LACK OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIMIT COVERAGE. A FEW STORMS WILL
LIKELY REACH SEVERE LEVELS BY MID AFTERNOON AS HEATING WEAKENS CAP. 
WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND LAPSE RATES GREATER
THAN 7C/KM...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY.
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EWD OFFSHORE THIS EVENING ENDING THREAT.

...AZ...
A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG/AHEAD
OF UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO AZ.  SUFFICIENT HEATING S OF MOGOLLON
RIM AHEAD OF FRONT GIVEN LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH TROUGH AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON.

..HALES/JEWELL.. 03/14/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.