[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 141251
SWODY1
SPC AC 141249

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 AM CST MON MAR 14 2005

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE
JAX 10 E GNV 10 NNW CTY 20 ESE TLH 20 NNW TLH 30 SW ABY 35 NNE MGR
20 S SAV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CRP 20 W SAT 30
SE BWD 40 NNE ACT 25 WNW SHV 25 SSW MLU 40 W HUM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE VRB 20 SSE SRQ
...CONT... 25 WSW PNS 55 NE MOB 35 E 0A8 15 SSW AHN 25 SW CAE 15 E
CRE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW TUS 70 SW PRC
40 ENE IGM 60 N INW 20 SSE ABQ 45 E 4CR 30 N MAF 20 S P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF S GA AND NRN
FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED RETROGRESSION OF FEATURES AT HIGH LATITUDES WILL MAINTAIN
RECENT PATTERN OF INCREASED TROUGHING OVER MOST OF WRN CANADA AND
THE WRN U.S. THIS PERIOD...WHILE HEIGHTS REBOUND SLIGHTLY ALONG THE
E CST.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED S/SE ACROSS TEXAS AND THE
CNTRL GULF CST STATES YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE SE ACROSS THE NRN GULF
AND MUCH OF GA TODAY BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS S
CNTRL FL EARLY TUESDAY.  WEAK WAVE NOW NEAR AGS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE
SC CST LATER THIS MORNING.  A SIMILAR WAVE MAY DEVELOP ALONG FRONT
AS IT CROSS S GA/NRN FL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
FORCING /PER SATELLITE OR MODEL GUIDANCE/.  

...SRN GA/NRN FL...
BAND OF MODERATE /50-60 KT/ WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL LINGER OVER
THE ERN GULF CST REGION TODAY AS MAIN NRN STREAM SPEED MAX MOVES E
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST.  MUCH STRONGER /100+ KT/ FLOW WILL BE
PRESENT AT UPPER LEVELS.  THE BAND OF STRONG FLOW WILL COINCIDE WITH
AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON
INVOF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER SRN GA. 

HIGH CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN SOMEWHAT FILTERED SUNSHINE OVER S GA AND
NRN FL TODAY...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN
WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY IN NRN LA AND MS.  BUT COMBINATION OF EVEN
MODEST HEATING WITH INCREASING MOISTURE INFLOW /AVERAGE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/ AND RESIDUAL EML PLUME AT MID LEVELS
SHOULD BOOST AFTERNOON MLCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG.

WHILE SATELLITE SUGGESTS PRESENCE OF A WEAK SRN BRANCH IMPULSE NOW
OVER LA THAT MIGHT ENHANCE ASCENT ACROSS SLIGHT RISK REGION LATER
TODAY...CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL LIKELY
PROVIDE PRIMARY SOURCE OF LIFT.  PRESENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD LAYER
SHEAR WILL FOSTER LONGEVITY AND MID LEVEL ROTATION IN ANY CELLS THAT
DO FORM...DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK/SHALLOW FORCING FOR ASCENT. 
OVERALL SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH BOTH HAIL
AND HIGH WIND...MAINLY FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.  

...AZ/WRN NM...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER CNTRL/SRN AZ AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF WRN NM LATER TODAY AS SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED SE MOVEMENT
OF GRT BASIN TROUGH DESTABILIZE REGION.  DEEP MIXED ENVIRONMENT WITH
COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND MINUS 20 C AT 500 MB/ AND MODEST
BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW WILL LIKELY YIELD A FEW STORMS WITH
SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

...SE TX...
ELEVATED RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING SWRN
STATES TROUGH MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED ELEVATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE NWRN GULF CST REGION.

..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 03/14/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.