[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 140539
SWODY1
SPC AC 140537

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE
JAX 10 E GNV 10 NNW CTY 25 ESE TLH 20 NNE TLH 25 S ABY 35 NNE MGR 20
S SAV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE GPT 45 SW LUL
35 WSW LUL 20 E CBM 40 WNW RMG 15 NE CLT 45 SW HSE ...CONT... 10 E
MLB 25 SSE SRQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE PSX 50 SE DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WSW TUS 55 NW GBN
45 SE IGM 30 SW GCN 70 N INW 40 ESE ABQ 45 W LBB 20 SSW ABI 55 NNE
CLL 25 SE BPT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN GA AND NRN
FL...

...AL/GA/FL...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL MS AND NRN AL WILL ADVANCE SEWD
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SFC HEATING COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD INITIATE STORMS BY
THIS AFTERNOON IN SRN GA WITH STORMS SPREADING ESEWD INTO NRN FL BY
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE
WRN FL PANHANDLE AND SRN AL DUE TO A CAPPING INVERSION AND THE
RELATIVELY WEAK ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION.

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 00Z TUE ACROSS NRN FL AND SRN GA SHOW
ABOUT 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500
J/KG WHICH WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AS STORMS MATURE ESPECIALLY IF MODERATE INSTABILITY CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS SRN GA AND NRN FL. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD QUICKLY
DECREASE BY MID-EVENING AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION.

...AZ/NM...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH
STRONG ASCENT MOVING SWD ACROSS AZ AND NM DURING THE DAY. AS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WARM...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE BY
MIDDAY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD SLOWLY SEWD. SMALL HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH THE CONVECTION DECREASING BY MID-EVENING AS
INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION.

...SCNTRL/SE TX...
STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND TX TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS SRN TX SPREADING A
SHALLOW LAYER OF COOLER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. SFC WINDS SHOULD TURN
ELY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ABOVE THE COOLER
AIR INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN RESPONSE...ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE AND
SPREAD NWD ACROSS SCNTRL AND SE TX LATE TONIGHT. WEAK INSTABILITY
AND THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES/CROSBIE.. 03/14/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.