[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 140152
SWODY1
SPC AC 140151

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005

VALID 140100Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW
MCB 30 W ESF 45 SE SHV 45 SSW ELD 35 N MLU 35 NNE CBM 35 WNW AND 15
E AND 30 SE AND 45 ESE AHN 15 WSW AUO 20 NNW MCB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW ALM 60 NNW SVC
50 W SOW 40 ESE EED 15 ENE EED 30 NNE EED 15 NNW IGM 75 WNW GUP 25
WNW SAF 45 SSE LVS 60 N ROW 15 WSW ROW 25 ENE ALM 15 WNW ALM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW CRE 40 SSW AGS
35 WNW ABY 25 ESE PNS ...CONT... 40 SE LCH 40 SW POE 45 NW POE 20 E
SHV 25 SW ELD 40 W MSL 15 NNW TYS 45 ENE DAN 10 ENE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE MER 30 NNE MER
45 ENE SCK 45 SSW TVL 35 S TVL 65 NW BIH 60 WNW BIH 40 ENE MER.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF LA...MS...NRN
AL AND FAR WRN SC...

CORRECTED FOR FLIPPED THUNDER LINE IN CA

...NRN LA/CNTRL MS/NCNTRL AL...
NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. THE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY SHOWS
0-6 KM SHEAR AT 40 TO 50 KT ACROSS LA...MS AND AL WITH MLCAPE VALUES
OF 750 TO 1000 J/KG AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESPECIALLY
WITH SUPERCELLS OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS. THE THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT HAIL WILL BE THE GREATEST OVER NE LA WHERE 850 TO 500
LAPSE RATES EXCEED 7.0 C/KM. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE
GREATEST ACROSS SCNTRL MS AND AL WHERE WIND PROFILES ARE
UNIDIRECTIONAL AND 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST. A FEW TORNADOES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH WELL-DEVELOPED SUPERCELLS THAT TRACK NEAR
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CNTRL MS AND WRN AL. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DROPS OFF
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS AN MCS ORGANIZES AND MOVES EWD ACROSS ERN MS
AND CNTRL AL. BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS NRN LA AND WRN MS...THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD END WITH THE CAPPING INVERSION BECOMING
RE-ESTABLISHED.

...NRN GA/WRN SC...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NRN GA AND FAR WRN SC. THE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINTS IN THE 45 TO 50 F RANGE WHICH SHOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE 50S F AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS
EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS. AN MCS MOVING EWD OUT OF AL WILL CROSS THE REGION
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT...THE STRONG SHEAR AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT PRESENT WITH THE STRONGER CELLS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...SRN ROCKIES...
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE MTNS OF NCNTRL
AZ AND NM. THIS CONVECTION IS FORMING IN THE MTNS DUE TO SFC
HEATING...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF AN
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS OFF THIS
EVENING...THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING VERY ISOLATED BY LATE THIS EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 03/14/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.