[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 111606
SWODY1
SPC AC 111604

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1004 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2005

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ILM 20
WSW GSB 45 NNW RWI 20 W RIC 20 NE WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE MTO 20 W BMI
DBQ 35 WNW LNR 25 ESE VOK 35 ENE MSN 20 NW CGX 35 NE LAF 30 NW LUK
45 E LEX 25 WSW JKL 45 NE OWB 45 SSE MTO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW CHS 20 SE AGS
25 N SPA 25 S SSU 35 WNW DCA 20 NW DOV 30 S ACY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN VA/ERN NC...

...MID ATLANTIC STATES...

VERY STRONG FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ERN U.S. TROUGH AS S/WV IMPULSE
CURRENTLY TN VALLEY MOVES TO OFF E COAST BY THIS EVENING. SURFACE
LOW WRN PA WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD VICINITY APPALACHIANS. 
STEEP...COLD LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC STATES
AS S/WV TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH.

MEAGER SURFACE MOISTURE AVAILABLE E OF APPALACHIANS WITH DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 40F.  HOWEVER GIVEN THE HEATING/MIXING E OF
MOUNTAINS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...MODELS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP SOME
WEAK CAPE BY MID AFTERNOON...100-300 J/KG.

LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP E OF VA/NC HIGHER TERRAIN DURING
AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  WHILE CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT
POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY...THE 50-60 KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL POSE THREAT
OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.

THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING AS
S/WV TROUGH MOVES ON TO THE E.

..HALES.. 03/11/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.