[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 111309
SWODY1
SPC AC 111307

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0707 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2005

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE
SAV 35 SSE CLT GSO 15 WNW RIC WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW GON 15 WNW PVD
15 SE BOS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE SSI 35 NW AGS
AVL 30 W DCA 20 ENE BWI 20 NE ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW EVV 15 W UIN
25 SSE OTM 10 SE CID 35 SSE DBQ 40 SW RFD 10 NE IND 35 SSE IND 30 NE
OWB 40 WSW EVV.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF VA AND THE
CAROLINAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP POLAR VORTEX WILL REMAIN NEAR JAMES BAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF IMPULSES ROTATE ABOUT IT.  LEAD DISTURBANCE NOW OVER MO/NW
AR/ERN OK SHOULD SHIFT RAPIDLY E ACROSS THE TN VLY TODAY... AND
REACH THE NC/SC PIEDMONT BY 00Z SATURDAY.  AT THE SAME TIME
...EXPECT THAT UPSTREAM JET MAX NOW DROPPING S ACROSS MANITOBA WILL
BE OVER ERN IA/WRN IL.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH OZARKS SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME BETTER
DEFINED AS IT CROSSES THE PIEDMONT AND CSTL PLAIN OF VIRGINIA AND
THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY...AND MOVES OFF THE COAST EARLY TONIGHT. 
COLD FRONT WITH THE MANITOBA SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING ATTM OVER NRN MN. 
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD ALSO INTENSIFY AS IT ACCELERATES SSE ACROSS THE
MID MS VLY TODAY...AND INTO THE LWR OH VLY EARLY SATURDAY.

...CAROLINAS/VA...
A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR LOW-TOPPED STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND WILL
EXIST OVER PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TONIGHT AS SURFACE HEATING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT DESTABILIZE
CORRIDOR IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.

COOL MEAN THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND SPARSE MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL
LIMIT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.  BUT UNUSUALLY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES /ON THE ORDER OF 8 DEGREES PER KM/ AND LARGE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS /AROUND 30 DEGREES/ WILL BE PRESENT
OVER REGION...AND FAST /80 KT/ UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW FLOW WILL PREVAIL
AT MID LEVELS. THUS... SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG
CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS THAT COULD AUGMENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER AND YIELD
DAMAGING SURFACE WINDS...IF STORMS OR SHOWERS DO INDEED FORM.

THE LATEST SATELLITE AND RAOB DATA SUGGEST THAT WHILE MO/AR IMPULSE
IS FAIRLY STRONG...VORT SYSTEM IS PRIMARILY CHANNELED. THIS AGREES
WITH LATEST GFS/NAM/ECMWF GUIDANCE WHICH DEPICT RATHER MODEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT AS SYSTEM DRIVES ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND VA LATER TODAY.  WHILE THE MEAN WLY FLOW WILL LIMIT
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP ...UNDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILES WILL FOSTER GUST FRONT LONGEVITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH WIND.  THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT.

...MID MS VLY...
ISOLATED THUNDER MAY DEVELOP IN EXIT REGION OF STRONG SSE-MOVING JET
STREAK LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...WHERE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY YIELD SNOW SHOWERS AT THE SURFACE.

..CORFIDI/BANACOS.. 03/11/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.