[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 081252
SWODY1
SPC AC 081250

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2005

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE
SAV 35 WNW CAE 20 WNW CLT 15 W GSO 30 NNE RWI 35 ESE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE DRT 50 S CRP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE OKC 35 S DUA
40 NE ACT 45 W TPL 35 SSE SJT 35 N MAF 30 S TCC 20 NW RTN 35 SSW PUB
25 WSW LIC 50 SE AKO 55 N GCK 40 W P28 25 ENE OKC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S CTY 30 WNW JAX
35 W SAV 45 W AGS 25 WNW AND 30 E HSS 10 SSE SSU 45 NNE CHO 25 NE
SBY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH LATE MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND ERN SC/NC....

...CAROLINAS THROUGH LATE MORNING...
AN INTENSE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS ROTATING EWD OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST DOWNSTREAM ASCENT NOW
OVERSPREADING SC AND NC.  SOME CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT ACROSS CENTRAL SC/NC...THOUGH VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY HAS LIMITED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO THIS POINT.  OTHER
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING  IN A NARROW BAND ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM
THE PIEDMONT SWWD INTO E CENTRAL GA...ALONG AN AXIS OF MUCAPE VALUES
OF 100-250 J/KG.  EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT THE COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL REACH THE COASTS OF GA/SC BY ABOUT 15Z
AND THE NC COAST BY ABOUT 17Z...BRINGING AN END TO THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY...A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS MAY
OCCUR THROUGH MID MORNING WITH THE FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION...GIVEN
THE OBSERVED 50 KT FLOW WITHIN 1 KM OF THE GROUND.

...FL PENINSULA...
A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DRIFTED SWD INTO CENTRAL FL.
 SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LIMITED OVERNIGHT BY RELATIVELY
DRY TRAJECTORIES ALONG THE PENINSULA...THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME
TENDENCY FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO SWLY
/OFF THE ERN GULF/.  STILL...INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BY POOR MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
DURING THE DAY.  ADDITIONALLY...FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH IN THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
N OF FL.  ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE COULD OCCUR THIS MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL FL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL
END WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS CENTRAL FL BY MIDDAY...AND THE
SE FL COAST BY THIS EVENING.  OVERALL...IT APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE
THREAT IS TOO LIMITED/MARGINAL TO WARRANT MAINTAINING A CATEGORICAL
RISK AREA TODAY.  

...PLAINS AREA...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MT THIS MORNING WILL DIG SSEWD TO
OK/TX BY TONIGHT.  STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL TEND TO OFFSET THE VERY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND SUPPORT A MARGINAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT
FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON TO NW TX AND WRN OK BY
EARLY TONIGHT.

..THOMPSON/BRIGHT.. 03/08/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.