[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 070630
SWODY1
SPC AC 070628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 AM CST MON MAR 07 2005

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE
JAX 20 W CTY ...CONT... 10 SE PSX 45 SW CLL 45 SSE DAL 35 SW HOT 40
NNE LIT 20 SW CGI 35 E PAH 60 N CSV 25 W TRI 25 ENE GSO 30 ESE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GDP 40 W FST
50 SSE MAF 30 WSW ABI 40 E SPS 45 SW JLN 30 ENE COU 25 N PIA 35 WSW
SBN 30 WSW FDY 25 ENE PKB 20 SSW WAL ...CONT... 10 NNW DAB 50 N PIE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY
TO THE CAROLINAS/SERN STATES...

...ERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS/SE COAST...
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL STATES PER WV IMAGERY...WILL AMPLIFY AS IT DIGS SEWD TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES TO GULF COAST STATES BY 12Z TUESDAY.  THIS IS A VERY
DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ERN HALF OF THE U.S. THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...STRONG SRN
STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM MEXICO ENEWD TO SRN GULF
COAST STATES AND FL.  DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS...PREDOMINATELY
WSWLY...WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STRONG MID-UPPER
TROUGH.  850 MB WINDS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 35-50 KT THROUGH
00Z...AND THEN INCREASE TO 50+ KT ACROSS THE SERN STATES AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM DEEPENS.  SIMILARLY AT 500 MB...WSWLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM 50-65 KT TO NEAR 100 KT OVER THE NERN GULF TO SERN
STATES BY 08/12Z.  AT THE SURFACE...LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS EWD
FROM MI TO NEW ENGLAND.  TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE START OF THE PERIOD AND THROUGH THE
DAY/OVERNIGHT AS IT PUSHES QUICKLY TO THE ERN SEABOARD TO NRN GULF
BY 12Z TUESDAY.  SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL ADVECT SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST STATES/LOWER MS VALLEY AND
SERN STATES TODAY.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SRN STREAM IS PROVIDING FORCING ATTM OVER
NRN COAHUILA FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE TX COAST THIS MORNING AND THEN EWD TO THE NERN GULF COAST
BY 21-00Z.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST FROM
12Z THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS.  CONVECTIVE
CLOUDINESS AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE NERN GULF COAST STATES BY
00Z.  CLOUDINESS WITH THIS FEATURE MAY INHIBIT AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE AFTERNOON. 
NAM/ETAKF DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS TODAY
ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...THUS REDUCING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SEVERE STORMS.

THEREFORE...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION FOR THIS
FORECAST...SINCE IT AGREES BETTER WITH THE GFS INSTABILITY FORECAST.
 IF STRONGER INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS ERN TX TO MS/AL THAN
PRESENTLY INDICATED BY THE NAM...THEN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK
MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A MODERATE.

GIVEN EXPECTED STRONG...DEEP WSWLY WINDS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE
AND MUCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG FROM ERN TX TO SRN MS BY THIS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME SUPERCELLS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SRN LA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD EWD TO SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE TOWARD
00Z.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH ACROSS ERN OK TO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY BY MID MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD INTO A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  A FEW DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD INTO THE AXIS OF GREATER
INSTABILITY AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS...A SQUALL LINE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL DEVELOP FROM ERN TX TO LOWER
TN VALLEY BY 21Z.  THIS SQUALL LINE WILL THEN SPREAD QUICKLY EWD
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY GULF COAST STATES THIS EVENING TO THE
CAROLINAS/SERN STATES TONIGHT. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE
DAMAGING WINDS WITH A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EWD.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY WEAK
ACROSS GA/CAROLINAS TONIGHT...THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD
SUGGESTS THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO THE COAST BY
12Z TUESDAY.

..PETERS/GUYER.. 03/07/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.