[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 061949
SWODY1
SPC AC 061948

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 PM CST SUN MAR 06 2005

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W YUM 40 W TRM 15
NE RAL 15 WSW DAG 40 NNW IGM 55 SSE PGA 4SL 40 NE CVS 45 N ABI 40
ENE AUS 35 NNE VCT 50 ENE CRP ...CONT... 45 S CRP 50 NNE MFE 65 WNW
MFE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE FYV 35 WSW FYV
30 E BVO 30 E EMP 50 WNW LWD 10 W ALO 25 ENE LNR 45 NE MKG 15 S MBS
25 NNE ARB 40 S MIE 25 NE PAH 60 WSW ARG 35 SE FYV.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER OH VALLEY/MID-MS VALLEY...
UPPER-TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL
AMPLIFY AND MOVE QUICKLY SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY THIS EVENING WITH CONVECTION LIKELY
DEVELOPING ALONG IT DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
INCREASES. STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE AND SPREAD QUICKLY SEWD INTO NRN
MO AND IL OVERNIGHT.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN KS
WHERE 40-50 F SFC DEWPOINTS EXIST. THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
ADVECT NEWD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY LATE EVENING ACROSS NRN MO
AND WRN IL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN NRN MO AT 06Z SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILES ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. CONSIDERING THE STRONG ASCENT AND FAST CELL MOTION...THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN KS CAN ADVECT NEWD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT
VERY ISOLATED.

...SRN AZ/SRN NM/WEST TX...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS SRN NM AND SRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER-LOW
OVER NWRN MEXICO MOVES EWD THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT WILL SPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EWD ACROSS FAR WEST TX
AS WELL. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGING
FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION WITH 500 MB TEMPS RANGING
FROM -18 TO -22C. THIS IS CREATING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH
COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR IS
PRESENT OVER SRN NM WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 60 TO 70 KT. THIS
MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A SMALL SUPERCELL THREAT WITH THE STORMS CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS TRACK ENEWD ACROSS SRN NM. A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A
DECREASE LIKELY BY THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS OFF.

..BROYLES.. 03/06/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.