[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 050526
SWODY1
SPC AC 050525

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2005

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S SAV 50 SE MCN 15
SW GAD 30 ESE BNA 50 SE LUK 20 SE CRW 45 ESE LYH 40 SSE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW LAX 30 WNW EDW
35 WSW DRA 45 S BCE 25 E FMN 25 WSW CDS SEP 20 ESE TPL 60 NNE VCT 30
SSW PSX.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY THIS PERIOD. THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE UPPER
MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE SEWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND
CAROLINAS LATER TODAY. IN THE W...SPLIT FLOW REX BLOCK PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL. THE UPPER LOW OVER SRN CA IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SEWD INTO
THE BAJA AND SRN AZ AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. SERIES OF IMPULSES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MOVE NEWD INTO NM AND TX.

...CAROLINAS...

THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL MOVE SEWD
INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT. A
WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND
40S SUGGESTS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED. COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG.
STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEWD
MOVING IMPULSE MAY INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES. WLY 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KT...STEEP LAPSE RATES...COLD
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MODEST INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A THREAT
OF HAIL. DRY...MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEATING
ALSO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR  ISOLATED STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS. THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY.


...SWRN STATES...

COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LOW
INTO THE DESERTS OF SRN AZ AND SERN CA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE AS SURFACE HEATING PEAKS WITH
MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE RATHER WEAK NEAR
THE UPPER LOW CENTER...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING.

FARTHER E ACROSS NM AND INTO SW TX...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
UNDERGO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE EARLY SATURDAY IN VICINITY OF
DEFORMATION AXIS AS VERTICAL MOTION INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
IMPULSES LIFTING NEWD THROUGH NRN MEXICO. S OF THE INITIAL BANDS OF
CONVECTION...STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SRN
NEW MEXICO INTO SWRN TX. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME AT LEAST
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS THROUGH MID EVENING. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

..DIAL/CROSBY.. 03/05/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.