[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 050038
SWODY1
SPC AC 050036

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2005

VALID 050100Z - 051200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE P07 30 W FST 20
SE CNM 10 NW HOB 25 SE BGS 25 S BWD 40 W AUS 15 W SAT 20 NNW COT 55
WSW COT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE MRY 30 SW FAT
45 SSW BIH 40 WSW DRA 25 E LAS 35 SSW GCN 35 N SOW 40 NNE SAD 40 SSW
SAD 55 SSW TUS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW MEM 45 NW LIT
10 WNW HRO 25 ENE SGF MDH 25 NE SDF 30 NNE CRW 10 W BLF 20 NE HSS 45
SW TYS 40 N MSL 35 WNW MEM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN CA...

COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG VORT MAX MOVING
ONSHORE AND SURFACE HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS SRN CA WITH MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN
THIS STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK NEAR THE UPPER LOW CENTER.
HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL AND LAND SPOUTS NEXT FEW HOURS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY TOWARD MID EVENING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.

...MID MS VALLEY THROUGH TN AND OH VALLEY AREAS...

SCATTERED CONVECTION INCLUDING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NERN ARK
THROUGH CNTRL KY ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG A WARM
ADVECTION/WLY LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE MODEST
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A ZONE OF MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AOB 300 J/KG FROM NRN AR EWD THROUGH PARTS
OF KY AND TN. THE ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG WNWLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES...AND A STORM OR TWO COULD INTENSIFY
AND BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED
BY MEAGER INSTABILITY.

A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG VORT MAX WILL DROP SSEWD
THROUGH THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG A PORTION OF THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES SWD.
HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTERCEPT THE INSTABILITY
AXIS UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. BY THAT TIME...ANY REMAINING
INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY MARGINAL...SUGGESTING THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN LOW.

..DIAL.. 03/05/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.