[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 042001
SWODY1
SPC AC 041959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2005

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW ABI 30 N BWD
35 ESE BWD 45 SSE BWD 25 NW JCT 65 NE P07 FST 10 SSW INK 35 ESE HOB
55 WNW ABI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W PRB 25 W FAT 35
SE BIH 20 W LAS 55 ENE IGM 25 SSE FLG 45 WSW SOW 65 SW SOW 50 NNW
TUS 80 SSE GBN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE MKL 50 S UNO
10 N HRO 20 S SGF 35 NE SGF 35 E VIH 15 SSW LUK 30 NW HTS 10 NNE 5I3
15 N HSS 30 SSE TYS 55 SSE BNA 40 ESE MKL.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY...
STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL SLIDE SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE NORTH EDGE
OF A LOW-LEVEL JET ORIENTED WEST TO EAST FROM WRN TN TO VA. A
CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE BUT CONVECTION SHOULD BE ABLE TO
BREAK THE CAP ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE AXIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE. INITIATION APPEARS MOST LIKELY IN
SERN MO WHERE A CU FIELD IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY. STORM
COVERAGE WILL EXPAND AS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ORGANIZES AND MOVES EWD
ACROSS SRN IL...WRN KY AND WRN TN.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 02Z IN FAR SRN IL SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 800 TO 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH
ABOUT 40 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH ORGANIZED MULTICELLS
WITH A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL THREAT. ANY THREAT SHOULD BE
BRIEF DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

...CA/SW DESERT...
AN UPPER-LOW OVER SRN CA WILL MOVE SLOWLY ESEWD THIS EVENING. STRONG
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW AND SFC HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN SRN CA. MODERATE
VERTICAL SHEAR...COLD AIR ALOFT AND SBCAPE VALUES OF 750 TO 1000
J/KG SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WATERSPOUT
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DROPS
ACROSS THE REGION.

...WEST TX...
A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SRN CA
UPPER-LOW IS FORECAST TO PUNCH EWD ACROSS MEXICO TONIGHT. THIS WILL
INCREASE ASCENT JUST AHEAD OF THE NOSE OF THE JET WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORMS ALONG THE AXIS OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE TRANSPECOS REGION. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS CONVECTION.

..BROYLES.. 03/04/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.