[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 041631
SWODY1
SPC AC 041629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CST FRI MAR 04 2005

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ESE LBB 40 NE ABI
25 W SEP 10 S BWD 15 ESE SJT 65 SSE MAF 30 S INK 30 NW INK 35 NE HOB
70 ESE LBB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE DAL 15 WSW DUA
25 WNW PRX 35 W TXK 25 SSE GGG 40 SW TYR 25 SSE DAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W PRB 20 WSW FAT
25 ENE BIH 30 SSW DRA 20 SE LAS 35 NE IGM 40 N PRC 25 SSE FLG 45 W
SOW 50 NNW SAD 25 NW SAD 60 N TUS 40 SSE PHX 80 S GBN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N HSS 40 S TYS 55
SSE BNA 35 E MKL 45 WSW ARG 25 ESE HRO 20 ESE UMN 25 NNE SGF 25 SE
VIH 30 NNW EVV 25 ESE LUK 20 N HTS 10 N 5I3 15 N HSS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SERN MO INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY...
PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL IMPACT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS
THIS REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. LEADING SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING...WHILE
IMPULSE NOW DIGGING SSEWD ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AMPLIFIES
AS IT APPROACHES THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY LATER TODAY.  APPROACHING
SYSTEM MAY AID IN DEVELOPING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG NERN EXTENT OF MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /SFC
DEWPOINTS AOA 45F/ OVER SERN MO AND THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE REGION MAY BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
WITH SBCAPES AROUND 750-1200 J/KG NEAR 21Z...WITH FAIRLY STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR GIVEN NWLY MID LEVEL WINDS AROUND 40-50 KT.  THUS...A
FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF SEVERE WIND/HAIL INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.  AFTER DARK...THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AS LOW LEVEL WAA STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. 
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES.

...SRN CA COAST...
STRONG UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED -22C TO -24C MID LEVEL COLD POCKET
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY ESEWD ACROSS SRN CA TODAY.  THOUGH
SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK WITHIN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION...LOW LEVELS MAY
DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  STRONGER STORMS
MAY BE CAPABLE OF HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS...ALONG WITH A
WATERSPOUT/BRIEF TORNADO NEAR AND JUST OFFSHORE.

...TX...
LEADING DISTURBANCE SUSTAINING THUNDERSTORMS OVER NERN TX WILL
CONTINUE EWD INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY.  HOWEVER...SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO GREATER STABILITY LATER THIS MORNING AND RESULTANT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  LATER IN
THE PERIOD...LOW LEVEL WAA AND SUFFICIENT MOISTENING WILL OCCUR OVER
SWRN/W-CENTRAL TX TO WARRANT INCREASING MOIST CONVECTION AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

..EVANS/JEWELL.. 03/04/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.