[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 041259
SWODY1
SPC AC 041257

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 AM CST FRI MAR 04 2005

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE FSM 25 E TUL 30
NNW JLN 20 SSE VIH 25 WSW MVN 30 WSW BMG 25 SSW UNI 10 WNW BKW 30
WSW AVL 35 WSW CHA 25 ENE PBF 45 SE FSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N MRY 20 S SAC 55
ESE TVL 55 NNE DRA 25 W GCN 40 SSE SOW 35 S DMN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W MRF 35 NE FST 20
NNE BWD 20 WSW MWL 25 NNW SPS 40 NW ADM 30 N PRX 15 SE GGG 55 ENE
CLL 40 NE COT 50 SSE LRD.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN ACROSS CONUS TODAY WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SPLIT FLOW
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...A SRN STREAM FROM SRN CA EWD TO THE
GULF STATES...AND A NRN STREAM FROM THE NRN PLAINS SEWD TO THE OH
VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS.  WITHIN THIS BROADER SCALE FLOW
REGIME...SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL HELP FOCUS THE
THUNDERSTORM THREATS TODAY AND TONIGHT IN SEVERAL AREAS ACROSS THE
CONUS.

THE FIRST THUNDERSTORM THREAT AREA WILL BE TODAY FROM NE AR TO TN/KY
IN ADVANCE OF A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING SEWD FROM
MO/IL. THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING WHICH SUGGESTS THAT
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE ACROSS TN/KY.
LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY 
DEVELOP FROM SRN MO/NRN AR NEWD INTO KY AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH
/NOW OVER ERN ND AND NW MN/ AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE N.  A CONTINUED FEED OF STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES FROM THE W/WNW...RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES PROFILES...AND
MUCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

A SECOND THUNDERSTORM THREAT AREA WILL BE ACROSS N/NE TX TODAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD FROM NW TX.  A
SMALL CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS DOWNSTREAM FROM
THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS N CENTRAL TX...AND THIS CONVECTION
COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.  HOWEVER...THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL
MOVE ESEWD AND AWAY FROM THE STEEP LAPSE RATE SOURCE REGION TO THE
W...THUS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING.
 FARTHER SW...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT FROM
THE RIO GRANDE NEWD INTO CENTRAL TX IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK
DESTABILIZATION AND A SRN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHING THIS AREA FROM
BAJA.

LASTLY...A SRN STREAM TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND OVER SRN
CA.  COOLING AND MOISTENING OF THE MID TROPOSPHERE...ALONG WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD SUPPORT THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK
INSTABILITY AND AN ATTENDANT THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN
CA TODAY.  ISOLATED WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE BY TONIGHT AS FAR E AS
AZ.

..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 03/04/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.