[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 040535
SWODY1
SPC AC 040533

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 PM CST THU MAR 03 2005

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW SFO 35 NW SAC
55 NNE SAC 10 NE TVL 30 NNE BIH 35 S DRA 35 SE IGM 65 WSW SOW 30 NE
SAD 35 SE DMN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE SEP 15 WNW SPS
25 S ICT 15 SW JEF 15 N SLO 30 WSW BMG 20 SE LUK JKL 25 ESE TYS 25 N
CHA 50 ENE ACT 20 NNE SEP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W MRF 45 NE P07 45
W JCT 45 NNW HDO 25 SSE HDO 50 SSE LRD.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
U.S. THIS PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DROPPING SEWD
THROUGH THIS FEATURE. IN THE WRN STATES THE SRN STREAM WILL REMAIN
SPLIT FROM THE NRN BRANCH AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE
AND CUTS OFF OVER CA.


...ERN OK THROUGH SRN MO...NRN AR...KY AND TN...

THE VORT MAX NOW OVER MO WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE SERN U.S. TODAY. IN
ITS WAKE...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY EWD THROUGH THE SRN OH AND TN VALLEYS. VORT MAX
OVER ERN NM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES SEWD INTO THE
CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME FROM NERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM KS EWD THROUGH MO WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
SEWD...AND BY LATE AFTERNOON THIS FEATURE SHOULD EXTEND FROM PARTS
OF KY WWD THROUGH SRN MO AND INTO NERN OK. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
ONGOING STORMS MAY ALSO PERSIST OVER PARTS OF TN...AR AND KY. A
PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP EWD OVER THE MODEST MOIST
AXIS AND CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY DURING AFTERNOON PEAK
HEATING FROM PARTS OF KY WWD THROUGH OK. VEERED AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING IN WAKE OF LEAD IMPULSE SUGGEST LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES WILL BE LIMITED. STILL...A
FEW STORMS MAY MANAGE TO DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF  PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...BUT
OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND
MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

A STRONGER NRN STREAM IMPULSE WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE MS...OH AND TN
VALLEYS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD
FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL WSWLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE. INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MUCH OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER SUNSET...OFFSET FROM PEAK
HEATING. GIVEN STRENGTH OF VERTICAL SHEAR...PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY...ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH PARTS OF
THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE EVENING.

..DIAL.. 03/04/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.