[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 031954
SWODY1
SPC AC 031953

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CST THU MAR 03 2005

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW FMY 15 S PBI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E FYV 40 NE OKC 20
ESE END 35 NW PNC 25 WNW EMP TOP 20 ENE MKC 15 WNW SLO 20 NNE EVV
OWB 35 SSW OWB 35 SSW PAH 25 E FYV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E BGS 10 SSW 4CR
50 WSW GUP 40 SSE PGA 25 NNE PGA 20 SSW 4HV CNY MTJ 35 E DHT 15 S
LTS 35 NW MWL 45 WSW MWL 25 SSE ABI 30 E BGS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL PLAINS/OZARKS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING
SEWD ACROSS NEB. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE OZARKS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE LIFT
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS SBCAPE VALUES ACROSS ERN KS CURRENTLY NEAR 500 J/KG AND THESE
VALUES SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 750 AND 1000 J/KG BY 00Z. STORM
INITIATION WILL BE LIKELY NEAR MKC AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WNW TO ESE FROM NE KS
TO CNTRL MO. THE STORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE DEVELOPING SWWD
INTO NE OK AND MOVING SEWD INTO SRN MO THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH PROFILERS CURRENTLY SHOW 20 TO 25 KT AT 500 MB...THE
VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP THE STORMS ORGANIZE
BUT THE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD MINIMIZE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. STILL...WITH 850 TO 500 MB
LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5 C/KM AND VEERED LOW-LEVEL WIND
PROFILES...HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
22Z TO 02Z TIMEFRAME.

...NE NM/WEST TX...
A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EWD SPREADING STRONG
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS ERN NM AND WEST TX WHICH WILL LIKELY AID
STORM INITIATION ON THE CAPROCK IN ERN NM LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS FROM SJT EXTENDING NWD TO NEAR LBB WITH
THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY LOCATED WNW OF LBB. INITIATION WILL LIKELY
BE IN THIS AREA WHERE A POCKET OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PRESENT
NEAR CLOVIS NM. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN THE MTNS OF ERN
NM.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE WITH 0-6
KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 55 KT. THIS COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
MARGINALLY SEVERE SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING IF INSTABILITY CAN BECOME
STRONG ENOUGH. THE 19Z MODIFIED SOUNDING AT SJT IN NSHARP SHOWS
SBCAPE VALUE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WHICH COMBINED WITH VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES...WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS ASSUMING THIS ENVIRONMENT ADVECTS NWD BY THIS EVENING INTO THE
LOW-ROLLING PLAINS. BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE TIMING OF
THE WAVE AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...WILL NOT UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK
ATTM. AS THE STORMS ORGANIZE AND MOVE SEWD...THE NOSE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER...ANY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION.

...SOUTH FL...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE ERN GULF OF MEX AND THIS
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD TOWARD THE SRN FL COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT SRN FL LATE THIS
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY WEAK.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 03/03/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.