[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 031627
SWODY1
SPC AC 031625

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 AM CST THU MAR 03 2005

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE FMY 35 ENE
MIA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW MAF 25 NE ONM
25 WSW GUP 60 NNE INW 15 WNW PGA 35 NE BCE 25 SSW U28 40 E GJT 45 E
GUC 20 NNW TAD 45 N EHA 40 SW P28 35 SSW HUT 30 SSE SLN 30 SSW FNB
20 SSW P35 35 S UIN 15 ENE EVV 35 ESE OWB HOP JBR 65 N LIT 30 SE FYV
25 NE MLC 25 N DUA 15 S FTW 25 S SEP 35 S ABI 35 E BGS 30 NNW MAF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

BROAD AREA OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TODAY.  TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW
REGIME WILL POSE A RISK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM MO INTO
TX/NM.

...KS/MO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL SD.  THIS
FEATURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MO BY EVENING.  STRONG LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE PRESENT OVER THIS REGION...ENHANCING
WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT FROM EASTERN KS INTO SOUTHERN IL.  MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY MEAGER INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. 
HOWEVER...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES WILL AID IN A RISK OF HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS.  LACK
OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A THREAT OF
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.

...TX/OK...
WELL-DEFINED UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW OVER SOUTHERN UT...AND
WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TONIGHT. 
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FORCING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ARE
EXPECTED TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE.  ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK AND NORTHWEST TX.  FORECAST CAPE
VALUES ARE QUITE LIMITED IN THIS AREA AS WELL. 
HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR SUFFICIENTLY COLD/UNSTABLE
FOR A RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS.  RISK OF
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN THIS AREA ALSO APPEARS LOW.

..HART/JEWELL.. 03/03/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.