[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 031302
SWODY1
SPC AC 031300

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 AM CST THU MAR 03 2005

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE FMY 15 E MIA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE 7R4 30 S BTR
30 ENE MSY 35 SSW MOB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE FMY 15 E MIA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE 7R4 30 S BTR
30 ENE MSY 35 SSW MOB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S P07 15 S HOB 40
S ABQ GUP 55 SW GCN 45 SW SGU 30 ENE P38 35 SW U24 50 E U24 35 NNE
U28 35 NE TAD 60 WSW GAG 45 NNE CSM 30 N END 10 WSW MHK 20 ENE STJ
40 SE IRK 15 SW SLO 40 NE DYR 40 NNE LIT 35 NE DUA 55 E ACT 25 NW
LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW 4BK 45 WSW MHS
20 WNW UKI.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MULTI STREAM SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THIS PERIOD.  TWO
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE LOOSELY-DEFINED MIDDLE BRANCH JET WILL
BE THE MAIN DYNAMIC FEATURES MODULATING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
PERIOD.  THE FIRST IMPULSE...A SMALL CLOSED LOW NOW OVER SRN UT... 
SHOULD CONTINUE ESE INTO NE NM LATE TODAY...BEFORE WEAKENING IN
CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE SRN PLNS EARLY FRIDAY. FARTHER N...WEAKER
DISTURBANCE NOW OVER SD SHOULD DROP SE INTO ERN KS/WRN MO BY THIS
EVENING...AND INTO NRN AR BY 12Z FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...APPROACH OF UT DISTURBANCE WILL ENHANCE LEE
TROUGHING OVER ERN NM...AND A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN ALONG AN AXIS FROM NRN KS TO SRN MO.

...ERN NM/NW TX...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE AZ AND NRN
NM LATER AS SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED ESE MOVEMENT OF UPPER
IMPULSE DESTABILIZE REGION.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL.

THE MOUNTAIN STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP E/SE INTO THE HI PLNS OF ERN
NM AND W TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE RETURN OVER REGION WILL BE LIMITED IN WAKE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE NOW IN THE NWRN GULF.  BUT EXPECTED 
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED STRONG UPDRAFTS GIVEN PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW TO MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING SSELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH LEE
TROUGH.  THESE CELLS MAY YIELD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR GUSTY
WINDS. THE CONVECTION MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING
CLUSTER THAT CONTINUES SE INTO W CNTRL TX LATER TONIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY.  WHILE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER GRADUALLY IMPROVING BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE RETURN...COMBINATION OF DIURNAL COOLING AND LOWERING
TERRAIN SUGGEST THAT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED.

...ERN KS INTO SW MO/NE OK/NW AR...
WEAK SURFACE FRONT DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM FROM SD UPPER VORT MAY
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR A SMALL AREA OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
OVER PARTS OF KS/WRN MO.  THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE
LIMITED...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION INVOF FRONT
MAY YIELD A FEW CELLS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND.

..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 03/03/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.