[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 030542
SWODY1
SPC AC 030540

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CST WED MAR 02 2005

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE FMY 15 E MIA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE 7R4 30 S BTR
30 ENE MSY 35 SSW MOB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S P07 15 S HOB 15
SSE ABQ 40 NNE GCN 40 ESE MLF 50 E U24 35 NNE U28 35 NE TAD 60 WSW
GAG 45 NNE CSM 30 N END 10 WSW MHK 20 ENE STJ 40 SE IRK 25 NNW STL
15 SW SLO 40 NE DYR 35 NNE LIT 45 E ACT 25 NW LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW 4BK 45 WSW MHS
20 WNW UKI.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THURSDAY WITH NWLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH PREVAILING OVER THE ERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. A SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MS VALLEY AREA. SPLIT
FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST IN THE W WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE.

...ERN NM THROUGH W TX AND SW OK...

VORT MAX NOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
RESPOND TO HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
AND SHIFT TO SLY ACROSS W TX AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE RICHER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF S
OF BOUNDARY CURRENTLY MOVING OFFSHORE. THUS LIMITED MOISTURE WITH AN
AXIS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WILL PERSIST IN
THE POST FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TX NWD THROUGH OK. DESTABILIZATION
WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM W TX NWD INTO PARTS
OF OK AS STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
ADVECT EWD OVER THE MODEST MOIST AXIS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN MARGINAL OWING TO LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF MOISTURE
GRADIENT AS MIXING COMMENCES DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF W
AD W CNTRL TX. HOWEVER...BULK OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS WARM
ADVECTION AND ASCENT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. INITIAL HIGH BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF ERN NM
AND INTENSIFY AS THEY INTERCEPT SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ACROSS W AND W CNTRL TX DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.


...ERN KS THROUGH CNTRL AND SRN MO...

NRN STREAM VORT MAX WILL CONTINUE SEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID
MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK SURFACE LOW AND WARM
FRONT ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE FROM
ERN KS THROUGH CNTRL MO. THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING ASCENT AND
WARM ADVECTION IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

..DIAL/TAYLOR.. 03/03/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.