[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 022004
SWODY1
SPC AC 022003

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 PM CST WED MAR 02 2005

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW LRD 30 SE HDO
SAT 30 WNW AUS 40 SE BWD 30 WNW SEP 30 WNW MWL 45 N MWL 40 N FTW 35
S PRX 40 NW SHV 50 ESE SHV 40 NW BTR MSY BVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E LAS 30 N DRA 40
N TPH 30 N U31 25 ESE BAM 45 W ENV 20 NE U24 50 NW 4HV 15 SW 4BL 75
NW GUP 40 NNE FLG 45 E LAS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...TX/LA...
ARC OF STRONG CONVECTION IS IN PROCESS OF MOVING OFF THE UPPER TX
COAST WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW/THERMAL GRADIENT TRAILING BACK WWD
INTO S TX. WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL BOUNDARY LAYER EXIST
IN THE WAKE OF THIS COMPLEX ACROSS CNTRL AND NERN TX...LATEST
VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING BENEATH STJ RELATED CIRRUS SHIELD. IN ADDITION TO
BACKBUILDING STORMS ALONG THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ACROSS S TX...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SCATTERED TSTMS IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS WHERE
LAPSE RATES AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH ASCENT FROM SRN
STREAM IMPULSE NOW MOVING OVER WRN MEXICO...SHOULD PROMOTE
DEVELOPMENT. GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING OVER S TX WHERE
PRE-OUTFLOW INSTABILITY IS A BIT GREATER AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN
STRONG.

...SRN GREAT BASIN...
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH UNDERCUTTING MEAN WRN RIDGE WILL PROVIDE
DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND LOWERING STATIC STABILITY FROM ERN NV ACROSS
SWRN UT AND NRN AZ NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING NOW OCCURRING.

...WRN KS/NEB...
HIGH-BASED CU FIELD HAS EXPANDED ATOP LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
AXIS/LEE TROUGH FROM ERN CO/WRN KS NWD TO THE BLACK HILLS. DESPITE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ASCENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WITHIN MID
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS/VORT MAX ON THE ERN FLANK OF UPPER RIDGE...MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION IS EXTREMELY LIMITED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH
LOCAL CLOUD SCALE MOISTENING CAN OCCUR TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TSTM
IN VERY WEAK CAPE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND DURATION OF CG
LIGHTNING POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO JUSTIFY A TSTM OUTLOOK AT
THIS TIME.

..CARBIN.. 03/02/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.