[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 021303
SWODY1
SPC AC 021301

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0701 AM CST WED MAR 02 2005

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W TPH 80 NW WMC 70
WNW OWY 50 SW TWF 40 ENE U24 30 SSW 4BL 40 NW GUP 15 NNE INW 20 NE
PRC 30 SE IGM 40 SE LAS 25 W TPH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW DRT 35 SSW BGS
50 SSE LBB 45 WSW CDS 15 WSW CSM 10 NNW OKC 20 WSW FSM 25 ESE HOT 20
SE GLH 30 W MEI 45 E LUL 30 WSW PNS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE WNW TO NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE PLAINS TODAY...
DOWNSTREAM FROM LONG WAVE RIDGE ALONG THE W CST.  SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
FEATURES APPARENT IN THE WV IMAGERY WILL MODULATE CONVECTIVE TRENDS
OVER THE WRN AND S CNTRL STATES.

LEAD SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE ...LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING STORM
CLUSTERS IN TX...SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES ESE IN
CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE LWR MS VLY.  UPSTREAM IMPULSE NOW IN SRN CO
SHOULD FOLLOW A SIMILAR ESE HEADING TODAY...AND REACH SW AR EARLY
THURSDAY.  FARTHER S...AN IMPULSE IS APPARENT IN THE MORE SRN STREAM
OF FLOW CROSSING NRN PORTIONS OF BAJA AND SONORA.  THIS TROUGH
SHOULD REACH THE BIG BEND REGION LATE TODAY AND CROSS DEEP S TX
EARLY THURSDAY.  FINALLY...EXPECT STRONGER DISTURBANCE NOW ENTERING
WRN NV TO CONTINUE SE ACROSS THE SRN GRT BASIN LATER IN THE PERIOD.

AT LWR LEVELS...SURFACE DATA SHOW WARM/STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUING
TO DEVELOP OVER S TX...ENHANCED IN PLACES BY COMPOSITE STORM
OUTFLOW.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS S OF THE BOUNDARIES SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE LOW 60S BY AFTERNOON AS MODEST MOISTURE INFLOW CONTINUES.

...S TX...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF S TX THIS AFTERNOON
INVOF FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS APPROACH OF BAJA SYSTEM AND SURFACE
HEATING DESTABILIZE REGION.  WHILE SETUP COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...GIVEN
COMBINATION OF INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW AND LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...SEVERAL WEAKNESSES ARGUE AGAINST AN
UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME.

FIRST...IT APPEARS THAT DESPITE EWD MOVEMENT OF MEXICAN VORT...THE
STRONGEST DEEP SHEAR /ON THE ORDER OF 50 KTS/ WILL REMAIN S OF THE
MEXICAN BORDER.  AT THE SAME TIME...STLT LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW
PRESENCE OF THICK WARM CONVEYOR BELT CIRRUS WHICH WILL SOMEWHAT
MITIGATE LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION.  IN ADDITION... THE GUIDANCE IS
IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL VEER TO A WLY
COMPONENT FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY...SHIFTING THE STRONGEST/ DEEPEST
CONVERGENCE EWD INTO THE GULF.

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO
1000 J/KG/ WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO S
TX.  GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A
FEW SUSTAINED CELLS THAT MAY YIELD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR
DAMAGING WIND THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

..CORFIDI.. 03/02/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.