[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 020546
SWODY1
SPC AC 020545

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CST TUE MAR 01 2005

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW DRT 50 SSW CDS
20 WSW CSM 10 NNE OKC 25 WSW FSM 25 W MEI 50 E LUL 30 W PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE TPH BAM 40 ESE
OWY 40 NE ENV 30 SSW 4BL 45 NW GUP 15 NNE INW 20 NNE PRC 20 SE IGM
25 SE LAS 40 ESE TPH.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER WRN
TX...CNTRL CO AND A LOWER-LATITUDE FEATURE EMBEDDED INTO SUBTROPICAL
JET BRANCH OVER BAJA CA. THE WRN TX TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
TODAY AS IT PROGRESSES ESEWD WHILE UPSTREAM CO SYSTEM DIGS SEWD
THROUGH OKLAHOMA. TO THE W...BAJA DISTURBANCE WILL RAPIDLY TRANSLATE
EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO TODAY AND INTO THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO
OVERNIGHT.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...WRN PORTION OF WEAK FRONTAL ZONE FROM CNTRL TX 
INTO NRN GULF WILL LIKELY SAG SWD TODAY IN RESPONSE TO OUTFLOW
GENERATED FROM TSTM COMPLEX IN PROGRESS OVER CNTRL TX. IT APPEARS
THIS FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COMPOSITE MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING.

...TX...
TSTM COMPLEX WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST
FROM CNTRL TX INTO LA...LARGELY BEING DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL WAA AHEAD
OF WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SUSTAINED...BUT WEAKENING WAA ALONG
NOSE OF VEERING LLJ SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY EWD INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY TODAY...THOUGH ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED
BY THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

ADDITIONAL...MORE VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER S TX ALONG FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH APPROACH
OF BAJA SYSTEM. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES ARE EVENTUAL LOCATION OF
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND WHAT EFFECT THICK...SUBTROPICAL CIRRUS
PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW-LATITUDE DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE ON
DESTABILIZATION PROCESS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT POCKETS OF
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG/ WILL DEVELOP
LATER TODAY FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO DEEP S TX OWING TO MODEST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 03/02/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.