[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 020047
SWODY1
SPC AC 020046

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 PM CST TUE MAR 01 2005

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE CRP 50 S SAT
35 NE DRT 25 WSW FST 35 E GDP 50 NW GDP 10 W CEZ 20 NW GJT 50 SW CAG
30 N EGE 40 W COS 40 SE TAD 50 E DHT 35 W CSM 25 SSW OKC 20 WSW MLC
40 W TXK 30 N GGG 30 SSE TYR 25 SSE BPT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NM...TX AND SRN OK...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING FROM
N-CNTRL NM SEWD TO JUST E OF TCC WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION OF TX /E
AND NE OF SJT/. THE NM STORMS ARE OCCURRING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY CENTER TRANSLATING SEWD ACROSS
ERN NM AND WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW TO
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS OBSERVED BY 00Z AMA SOUNDING. OVER THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU...STORMS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIATED ALONG AND N OF
WNW-ESE ORIENTED BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM N OF MAF TO NEAR CLL WITHIN
INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME /PER LOCAL VWPS/PROFILERS/.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AREAL COVERAGE OF TSTMS WILL
INCREASE MARKEDLY TONIGHT FROM VICINITY OF ONGOING TX STORMS NWD
INTO SRN OK WITHIN THIS STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA PATTERN
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THE MAJORITY OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN DISORGANIZED OWING TO WEAK INSTABILITY AND
CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR. HOWEVER...SOME POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER ELEVATED STORMS OVER THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU NWD INTO W-CNTRL AND NRN TX WHERE BEST COMBINATION OF
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY /MUCAPES APPROACHING 500
J/KG/ WILL CO-EXIST.

..MEAD.. 03/02/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.